Dow 19K Possible in 3 Years: Guggenheim Chief Investment Officer
The stock market appears to be in the early phase of a "long-term bull market," said Scott Minerd, chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners, which has $170 billion in stocks and bonds under management.
"If you look at 2004 as a model—and what happened between 2004 and 2007—we saw the beginning of an asset bubble," he said in a "Squawk Box" interview Tuesday. "We continued to see equities move on 30 to 35 percent for the next three years."
If that happened again, the Dow Jones Industrial Average would go to more than 19,000.
But, Minerd warned, "I am sensing a lot of complacency, which I haven't felt so far in the last five years. I'm sort of in the mode right now that sometime over the course of three to six months we could see a pullback maybe of 5 to 10 percent."
"We get corrections in bull markets," he said, "but don't bet against the Fed" and its low interest rate policy and bond-buying program.
Minerd did point out the central bank will have some challenges ahead if it changes course. "The Fed has a Herculean task ... in terms of trying to convey to the market that it's going to normalize policy and reverse accommodation without setting off some sort of wholesale selling panic [in bonds]."
The worst-case scenario for bonds would look something like in 1994, he said, when the Fed began to pull liquidity out and the market tanked.
But Minerd added that at the time, "equity prices continued to go higher," as did the real economy.