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Dow Sets Another Record High, but Can It Keep Going?

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Published: Tuesday, 2 Apr 2013 | 5:26 PM ET
Giovanny Moreano By:

Quantitative Analyst

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at another record high on Tuesday for the eleventh time in the last twenty trading sessions. After posting its best first quarter since 1998, up 11.25 percent, what's next for the Dow?

Since 1950, there have been 12 other instances when the index was up more than 8 percent in the first quarter. In eight of those times, the Dow finished the second quarter with a gain of at least 1 percent.

In fact, there were five occasions when it rose more than 4 percent in the second quarter following a strong first quarter (1995, 1987, 1986, 1975 and 1954).

April, for example, has been the best month of the year, posting an average monthly increase of 2.7 percent in the last 20 years and 1.97 percent in the past 63 years.

While there are bumps along the way, most of the time, the Dow tends to build up on its gains following a strong first quarter. Historically, a strong first quarter also correlates with strong gains for the full year. (Read More: Dow's Best First Quarter Since 1998? Here's What Could Happen Next)

—By CNBC's Giovanny Moreano (Follow him on Twitter: @GiovannyMoreano)

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at another record high on Tuesday for the eleventh time in the last twenty trading sessions.
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