US Dollar Briefly Turns Higher vs Yen, Hits Peak
The dollar bounced back against the yen on Friday after hitting session lows in volatile trading following weaker-than-expected U.S jobs data, as investors found an opportunity to buy back the greenback at lower levels.
Analysts said the main driver for the dollar/yen pair is still the Bank of Japan's mammoth stimulus announced on Thursday, which should further undermine the Japanese currency.
"Investors' mindset in trading dollar/yen is to buy it on dips," said Brian Dangerfield, currency strategist, at RBS Securities in Stamford, Connecticut. "We know that dollar/yen will continue to strengthen given what's going on in Japan and the U.S. payrolls report gave the market the opportunity to buy it back at a lower level."
The dollar hit New York session highs at 96.65 yen, but was little changed at 96.30.
(Read More: Bank of Japan Policy Is Huge, Risky Experiment)
The dollar extended Thursday's gains to hit a peak of 97.20 yen on trading platform EBS in Asian trade, a level not seen since August 2009, but it then pared gains and was last down 0.2 percent on the day at 96.08 yen.
The dollar was still up nearly 11 percent against the yen so far this year, with Thursday's BOJ decision causing the biggest one-day fall in the Japanese currency since late 2008.
"The moves yesterday were excessive ... so we are seeing a pull-back and some profit taking,'' said Valentin Marinov, head of European G10 FX strategy at Citi. "That said, the trend in dollar/yen is on the upside. It feels like investors will use dips to jump on the bandwagon of the short yen trade before long."
Traders were also wary the U.S. non-farm payrolls data could be well below the consensus forecast for 200,000 jobs to be created in March, especially after weak private payrolls figures earlier this week.
"The market is expecting to be disappointed with U.S. non-farms. A reading of 150,000 is probably where we at in terms of expectations now — anything less than that is not factored in and would send the dollar weaker,'' said Neil Jones, head of hedge fund FX sales, at Mizuho Corporate Bank.
But market participants expected the yen would soon resume its falls against the dollar.
Aggressive monetary easing in Japan contrasts with expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will reduce the size of its asset purchases later this year, effectively tightening policy as other major central banks look poised to ease.
Mizuho's Jones said he had brought forward his forecast for the dollar to reach 100 yen from June to the end of this month, with a potential for it to firm towards 105 or 110 in the next 12 months.
"Whereas before 100 in dollar/yen was seen as particularly aggressive and somewhat wild it now seems relatively tame ... I do think yesterday's BOJ was a game-changer."
The BOJ's new governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, committed the central bank to open-ended asset purchases as he promised to inject about $1.4 trillion into the economy in less than two years.
German Order Jump
(Read More: BOJ Throws In Kitchen Sink in War With Deflation)
As the yen rebounded broadly the euro traded down 0.2 percent at 124.36 yen. It rose 4.3 percent on Thursday, its biggest one-day gain against the yen since November 2008, and then hit a peak around 125.61 yen in Asian trade on Friday.
The euro was down 0.1 percent on the day at $1.2920 but holding well above a 4-1/2-month low of $1.2740 on Thursday, after data showed a bigger-than-expected jump in German industrial orders.
The euro lost ground on Thursday after European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi said the bank stood ready to act if growth continued to languish and then recovered as he stressed that the Cyprus bailout deal was not a template for future rescues.
US Data
Some investors remained cautious on Friday as they awaited the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report later in the day. A disappointing result could keep U.S. bond yields depressed, fueling expectations of more bond-buying from the Federal Reserve, which would weigh on the dollar.
(Read More: Market Insider: March Jobs Report Will Be Full of Excuses)
Data showing weaker-than-expected growth in the U.S. private-sector employment and initial jobless claims at four-month highs last week has led to worries that the labour market is losing momentum.
Against the dollar, the euro slipped 0.1 percent to 1.2926 after a sharp reversal on Thursday. After first dropping to a 4-1/2-month low around $1.2745, investors pared back their bearish bets against the single currency, prompting it to rise 0.7 percent by late U.S. trade.
(Read More: The Buck Does Not Stop With ECB: Draghi)
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Thursday the bank stood ready to act if growth continues to languish. He also affirmed his commitment to keeping the euro zone intact and said the Cyprus bailout was not a "template" for future rescues in the currency zone.
