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Abrupt QE End Will Be a 'Disaster': Pro

Wednesday, 10 Apr 2013 | 2:10 PM ET
Futures Now: End of Easing?
Wednesday, 10 Apr 2013 | 12:29 PM ET
The Futures Now team discusses the best way to play Treasury bonds.

The latest minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting suggests that a few Fed policymakers expect to soon slow the pace of asset purchases, prompting one professional trader to warn that an abrupt end to the bond-buying program would be a "disaster."

(Poll: Will the Fed End QE This Year?)

"I could think of probably two ways it ends good and about 10 it ends bad, but the way it is now, it looks like we are one day closer to either being curtailed back or ending," Anthony Grisanti, founder of GRZ Energy, said on CNBC's "Futures Now."

Minutes from the most recent Fed meeting suggested that some policymakers expected to slow the asset purchases by midyear and end them later this year, while several others expected to taper the rate a bit later and halt the program by year's end.

(Read More: Some Fed Members Fear Monetary Policy Effects)

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke
Getty Images
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke

The Fed's biggest weapon is to create money out of thin air and it's using that power. In September, it launched a third round of quantitative easing, in which it has bought $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities per month—primarily in mortgage-backed bonds.

On the belief the end might be winding the program down, Grisanti plans to sell bond futures now.

"The U.S. government is buying 75 percent of all the bonds out there, so to unwind this or end it abruptly will be a disaster," he said.

From the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Rich Ilczyszyn of iiTrader took a different view, arguing it's "way too early" to tell whether the Fed will end QE and the bond trade is done.

(Read More: Time to End Bond-Buying? Not Yet, Fed's Lockhart Says)

"At this point, the majority still rules that the pedal is to the metal," Ilczyszyn said of the current Fed policy, adding there are many variables giving a boost to the bond market right now, such as foreign investment.

Earlier this week, the Bank of Japan began aggressive monetary easing in an attempt to beat persistent deflation, prompting Japanese investors to look for yield in U.S. Treasurys, Ilczyszyn noted.

Given the recent grab for Treasurys, pro trader Jeff Kilburg sees a buying opportunities for 10-year notes.

"All-time highs should allow the market to retrace and once we see that retracement start from a technical perspective, we should plug our noses and buy treasuries again," Kilburg said in an email to CNBC. "Indeed, plugging one's nose has been a very profitable strategy over the last few years."

Read on for How Can Stocks, Bonds Rally Together?

— By CNBC's Drew Sandholm with CNBC.com and Reuters

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