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World Bank Cuts China, Indonesia Growth Estimate

Sunday, 14 Apr 2013 | 11:06 PM ET
Beijing, China
Sam Diephuis | The Image Bank | Getty Images
Beijing, China

The World Bank on Monday scaled back slightly its 2013 growth forecasts for developing East Asia and warned about possible over-heating in the region's larger economies that could stoke inflation and asset bubbles.

The global lender, in its latest East Asia and Pacific Update, cut its gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for China by 0.1 percentage point to 8.3 percent for 2013, citing Beijing's ongoing efforts to restructure its economy.

(Read More: China's Q1 GDP Growth Slows Unexpectedly to 7.7%)

It also lowered its forecast for Indonesia to 6.2 percent from 6.3 percent due to an expected moderation in investment growth, but raised its growth outlook for Thailand and Malaysia.

Overall, the World Bank expects developing East Asia to grow by 7.8 percent this year, below its December estimate of 7.9 percent but faster than last year's 7.5 percent.

"Our growth forecasts for EAP (East Asia and the Pacific) for 2013 and 2014 remain roughly similar to those of December last year. We expect that with improving external conditions and strong domestic demand, regional growth will rise moderately to 7.8 percent in 2013 and then adjust back to 7.6 percent in 2014 and 2015," it said.

The World Bank, however, tempered its more benign outlook about conditions in the West with a call for Asian governments to start reining in the supportive monetary and fiscal policies that had been adopted in the aftermath of the financial crisis, echoing concerns raised by the Asian Development Bank last week.

(Read More: Unlike the Fed, BOJ's QE Won't Unleash Hot Money)

"Counter cyclical demand policies have helped sustain growth, but they may now risk stoking inflationary pressures and amplifying the credit and asset price risks that are emerging in the context of strong capital inflows into the region," the World Bank said.

While the bulk of capital flows into China and Indonesia comprise foreign direct investments that are not easily reversible, portfolio flows are sizable in Malaysia where they comprising 6.4 percent of GDP in 2012 on a net basis, up from 2.9 percent of GDP in 2011.

"Maintaining an appropriate macroeconomic stance and sufficient flexibility in the exchange rate and applying macro prudential measures to ensure these flows do no fuel asset bubbles are priorities," it added.

Haruhiko Kuroda
Julian Abram Wainwright | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Haruhiko Kuroda

The World Bank said that continued depreciation of the yen could affect the dynamics of trade and manufacturing in the region. Some countries, principally Korea, could face competitive pressures in the short term. But countries such as Thailand, which supplies motor vehicle parts to Japan, may benefit from advances made by Japanese exporters.

(Read More: US Warns Japan Not to Hold Down the Yen)

The Bank of Japan on April 4 stunned markets by unveiling an unprecedented monetary expansion campaign with plans to inject about $1.4 trillion into the economy over two years to break a deflationary cycle and end two decades of stagnation. The unprecedented easing provided fresh momentum to yen bears, with the dollar tapping a four-year high of 99.95 yen on Thursday.

While the World Bank didn't directly reference the BOJ's steps, which even eclipsed the U.S. Federal Reserve's massive quantitative easing program, the radical monetary expansion has caused worries about a wall of money moving into emerging markets and other economies in search of higher returns, potentially stoking inflation and asset bubbles.

(Read More: Will Japan's Central Bank Deliver or Disappoint?)

The World Bank also said major East Asian economies such as China, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines may be reaching the limits of their current productive capacity.

Price pressures are mounting in China, although the headline rate remains under the central bank target of 3.5 percent, while inflation is building up rapidly in Indonesia, it added.

The World Bank sounded a warning on rising debt levels in countries such as Thailand, Malaysia and China.

While China's general government debt stood at 22.2 percent in 2012, up from 19.6 percent five years ago, non-financial corporate debt has jumped to 126.4 percent of GDP from 113.6 percent in 2007. Household debt equal 29.2 percent of GDP in China, up more than 10 percentage points from 2007, the World Bank added.

"More significant than the growth of government debt has been the expansion in corporate and household debt... The sum of general government, non-financial corporate and household debt now exceeds 150 percent of GDP in Malaysia, Thailand and China," the World Bank said.

Contact World Economy

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