Cramer: This Commodities 'Tipping Point' Is Great for Stocks
The commodity markets have reached a key turning point and U.S. equities will reap the benefits of lower costs as raw materials continue to slide, CNBC's Jim Cramer said Monday.
"We've reached some sort of tipping point where everyone just figures that every commodity just has to go down," Cramer said on "Squawk on the Street."
"This is Europe. Europe is the big trading partner in China, so they can't figure out where to put that stuff. If Europe had any growth we wouldn't be seeing this."
"Our country is a commodity taker, not a producer like China, and you're going to see a lot of our companies begin reporting really great numbers," Cramer said.
In this environment, he sees raw costs going down while prices for the consumer will remain constant, translating to higher margins for companies. He also said he expects a 40-50 cent drop in the price of gasoline that will help the consumer, adding that "If oil comes down, I'm not going to suddenly read this as negative, I can't."
"All the raw costs are coming down dramatically. Earnings per share higher, multiple higher because there is no inflation to speak of and interest rates are low. It makes sense," he said.
The fall of commodities will be good for stocks, Cramer said. "When the rubble clears, the prices are coming down. We like gasoline going lower, isn't that a good thing? Gasoline is a tremendous tax on the American people."
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For companies like Celgene and Biogen Idec, "now we know why they go up. They go up because if commodity inflation is really tame, then in 2015-2016 we value their earnings at a higher level because we don't fear inflation not cutting off the multiple," he said. Cramer also pointed to Chipotle, Panera Bread and McDonald's as beneficiaries. "This is a raw cost story you're going to hear about over and over about."
"I caution people not to regard all of this as negative. We like commodities when they come down," he said.
On gold, Cramer said that the commodity "got too high," and when the U.S. economy remains steady there is a certain amount of people who will get out of gold. "I think that gold is an insurance policy. I hope that I never have anything happen to me, but I still buy insurance."
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For the macro picture, Cramer said "it is entirely possible that the receipts for our government are going to be much higher than we think and the deficit is going to go down. What happens if the government had windfall from capital gains? From capital spending? Maybe that's going on."