Brent Crude to Hit $115 by Year-End: Roubini Analyst
Brent crude oil will hit $115 a barrel by the end of the year, as unresolved political tensions in Iran and instability in Syria increase, according to a commodity analyst at Roubini Global Economics.
Roubini's Gary Clark of Roubini Global Economics told CNBC he is bullish on Brent crude, which last week hit $103 per barrel in its biggest weekly rise since November. He added that demand will pick up as we move into summer.
"The war and the growing evidence of potential chemical weapon use in Syria have been feeding into the risk premium of crude oil. That has been driving the rise of Brent, as fears of general instability in the region grow," said Clark.
"Across the commodities space we are also seeing supply rise, as well as geo-political risk. We are seeing increased risk in MENA [the Middle East and North Africa] and we have not seen a diplomatic solution to Iran's nuclear program. So these are upside risks which we have yet to see play out."
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Clark added that the sector was currently undertaking substantial refinery maintenance, subduing supply. "I think we will see a lot of upside drivers for Brent oil and we could see $115 by year end," he said.
Credit Suisse's head of energy research, Jan Stuart, agreed with the forecast.
"Oil looks better than many of the other commodities," Stuart told CNBC.com.
"Given the Saudi government's budget break-even is rising to $115 per barrel, it has some incentive to adjust supply to limit downside for prices. With only 12 percent of oil demand coming from China, oil is less of a play on China than other commodities."
However, Credit Suisse advised clients to stay bearish in a research note on Monday, noting that net speculative positions on oil are still stretched, suggesting there could be further selling pressure as these positions are unwound.
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