Fund Expert: Buy Apple, Sell Gold
Mark Dow, a former hedge fund manager who writes at the Behavioral Macro Blog, notes a key difference between the two. While "Apple is a bubble that has popped," Dow said, "gold is a bubble that is in the process of popping." For that reason, on Tuesday's "Futures Now," Dow advised going long Apple and short gold.
Apple and gold are certainly two charts that are at the front of investor's minds. After all, both appear to be making runs at technically important levels. For the first time in a month, Apple has managed to rise about its 50-day moving average. Gold, meanwhile, is edging closer to the psychologically important level of $1,500 an ounce.
So how does Dow know that gold will come back down? Because according to Dow, gold is a story that has been broken. While people have held gold in the belief that it will pop in time of crisis, we've gotten minor crises like the Cyprus deposit situation—and yet gold largely stayed put.That effectively disproved a major reason that people had owned gold.
Dow thinks Apple is another story. Between the massively successful debt offering, the buyback, and the increase in dividend, he believes that a floor has been made in Apple stock.
(Read More: Apple Bonds: 'Market Is Going to Be All Over It')
Moreover, Dow points out that so many fund managers have gotten Apple wrong that the risk of missing out as it rises is simply too great for them to take. So investor psychology—or more specifically, the psychology of fund managers struggling to meet or exceed benchmarks—is destined to drive Apple higher.
However, Apple's bottoming process could take some time, Dow notes. For that reason, "I wouldn't marry the stock yet, but it should be pretty good for a trade."
Dow sees gold, on the other hand, as a bubble that has not yet finished popping.