Why This Chart Means S&P 2,400: Technician
Is the market's run done, or is there 40% more upside from here?
According to RBC U.S. Market Technical Strategist Robert Sluymer, the answer is "both." It just depends on an investor's time frame.
Sluymer said the market is a bit overdone in the short-term, but over a three-to-five year horizon he sees the S&P 500 taking 2,300 to 2,400.
How does he arrive at that target? Simple math.
The S&P has been in "a huge trading range" that goes back to the year 2000, Sluymer said on Tuesday's "Futures Now." That's important, he said, because "a very simplistic way of measuring where the next potential upside is, you simply double the trading range."
Sluymer measures the range as between 800 and 1,600, so to get a long-term target, he said, "you simply take 800 points, you add it to the top, and it puts you someplace between 2,300 and 2,400 as a rough gauge."
One might point out, of course, that if Sluymer thinks the range is between 800 and 1,600, then 1,650 is a precarious place for the S&P to be. Indeed, "it's going to be very difficult for the market to move significantly higher here over the next few weeks," Sluymer said. In fact, he thinks that "somewhere, there is going to be a reasonably healthy correction."
Thus, Sluymer's bottom line is all about time horizon.
"For clients who have a three-to-five-year investment horizon, that's fine," he said. "I think we have a lot more upside in the bull market." On the other hand, he added, "for clients that have a one-year investment horizon, I think there's risk in putting a lot of new capital to work."