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The Crossover

The emerging world is driving energy demand, and that trend will only increase in the decades ahead. Between 2000 and 2010, non-OECD countries accounted for all world oil demand growth of 14 percent; developed nation demand actually fell.

Energy demand in developing countries will come to represent 90% of global energy demand growth to 2030 and rise 65 percent in absolute terms from 2010 to 2040, according to recent analyses from Exxon Mobil and BP. That demand will more than double OECD demand by 2040: the demand crossover.

It's a trend that officially began in 2005, when non-OECD countries had about the same demand as OECD countries; it will accelerate as half of worldwide energy demand growth will come from China and India alone. The OECD estimates there is a risk that oil prices could rise between $150 and $270 per barrel in real terms by 2020.