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Cramer: Retailers Sending a Signal?

Thursday, 6 Jun 2013 | 6:55 PM ET
Friday's Employment Report
Thursday, 6 Jun 2013 | 6:00 PM ET
"Nailing tomorrow's jobs report is very tricky," says Mad Money host Jim Cramer in assessing how the market might move on the data out Friday.

(Click here for video linked to a searchable transcript of this Mad Money segment)

Although Cramer values technical analysis and momentum, he's essentially a fundamental investor."I think of myself as a bottoms up guy," Cramer said.

That is, the information that most informs his outlook comes from conference calls, earnings reports and the mountains of research he always compiles.

"I'm always listening to hear what companies are telling us and then I try to form a worldview, an outlook based on insights from real business people," Cramer explained.

"And, alas, I haven't liked what I have heard of late, particularly in retail," he said.

Kyu Oh | Photodisc | Getty Images

Earlier in the week, "We got earnings reports from four retailers and three were just plain disappointing. They were Vera Bradley, Francescas and Ascena," Cramer said.

"Vera Bradley talked about merchandise assortment challenges. Francesca's, which aims for the 18 to 35 demographic, talked about a weak spring. Ascena just simply blew up; net income fell nearly 37 percent.

Three out of four disappointing reports are never good. However, "When I couple that with Dollar General's disappointment the other day, I get a sense that May was a very weak month in the American economy."

And Cramer thinks that the timing of the weakness couldn't be worse. "It's happening at exactly the wrong time," he said.

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That is, the market is already struggling with a spike in interest rates and the potential ripple it could generate. Already, new information suggests higher rates have already begun to have a negative affect on housing.

Taken in tandem, Cramer thinks the developments don't bode well for bulls.

Although he remains optimistic for the long-term, in the short-term he thinks investors could be facing more pain.

"We're looking at a mixed retail picture and potential for a weaker housing market. Is it the end of the world? Nope. But do these numbers embolden me to think the correction is over? No, not yet."

Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC

Questions for Cramer? madmoney@cnbc.com

Questions, comments, suggestions for the "Mad Money" website? madcap@cnbc.com

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VRA
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FRANCESCA HC
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ASNA
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DG
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SPDR SPRET
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SPDR SP HB
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