Cramer: Just How Much Downside Is There?
"If we get a strong number, one meaningfully above the expected 160,000 new jobs created, interest rates will likely spike on the belief that the Federal Reserve will taper off its bond buying program. And in the current environment, when rates spike, the stock market goes down," Cramer said.
"And if we get a weak number, a number that shows substantially fewer people hired, the stock market could sell off because fewer jobs created means fewer homes to be bought and less consumer spending."
Therefore, Cramer thinks it's only prudent to prepare for more selling. And that begs the question – just how bad will it get?
In an attempt to determine the magnitude of a severe move lower, Cramer drilled down into the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to see just how low they could go before they just got too cheap and buyers stepped in.
Currently, Cramer thinks 11 stocks in the Dow are vulnerable to selling simply because they've made outsized gains since the rally started.
They are American Express, Boeing, Cisco, Disney, Dupont, Hewlett-Packard, Home Depot, Johnson & Johnson, 3M and United Health.
"They've all had gigantic moves and because the current selling is about locking in profits I expect pros will ring the register in these names," Cramer said.
Here's how Cramer expects it to play out.
American Express: "Since the beginning of the rally, American Express has run from $61 to $76. This stock could easily fall back ten percent without a problem. Call it $70," Cramer said.
Boeing: "The company reported a terrific quarter, but I just don't think Boeing has more than ten percent downside before buyers come in," Cramer said.
Cisco: "Cisco just reported its first good quarter in years; also rivals Ciena and Juniper both had terrific things to say," Cramer noted. In this case, the Mad Money host doesn't think a pullback will endure. "I think Cisco's headed higher not lower."
Disney: "At $63, Disney looks vulnerable," Cramer said. "I think it could give up $3-4 easy before buyers would come in."
Dupont: "Dupont reported a terrific quarter since the beginning of this move but some of it is related to housing. I believe it could fall back to $55," Cramer said.
Hewlett-Packard: This stock could present an issue. "It's gone from $16 to $24 and has reported a terrific quarter but since then it's not doing all that well. I could see it falling by $3," Cramer said.
Home Depot: "If housing is slowing, I think Home Depot goes to $70," Cramer said.
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Johnson & Johnson: "Johnson & Johnson has rallied from $75 to $89 largely because of its big dividend. If rates go up the appeal should diminish," said Cramer. "I can see this stock retreating to $80."
3M: "This is one I am very worried about," Cramer admitted. "3M reported a very disappointing quarter and yet failed to go down. In a real selloff this one's got downside; maybe down to $97."
United Health: "It reported a good quarter and they did a big buyback, but I don't think it was good enough to stay at $61 on a bad employment number," Cramer said. "I would think that this one could easily travel back to $56-57."
In addition Cramer sees potential weakness in a few other Dow components depending on stock specific catalysts.
Looking at Microsoft Cramer said, "it could trade down to $32, however at that level I think buyers would step in." And he thinks JP Morgan could take a hit on a bad tape. I'm looking for $49," he said.
What do all these numbers mean?
Cramer's done the math, and even if these 'worst case' predictions listed above come to pass, he doesn't think there's big cause for concern.
"These rollbacks would put us down about 600 points and no more," he said. "I am willing to say that we may be looking at 3-4 percent decline on the Dow from here, but no more."
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