Reality Check for 'Spoiled' Investors: Bob Doll
In the coming weeks, the S&P 500 Index could revisit "the former highs of 2000 and 2007" of around 1,550, strategist Bob Doll told CNBC on Monday.
U.S. stock futures pointed to a sharply lower opening Monday as the S&P and the Dow Jones Industrial Average came off one of their worst weeks of the year.
Analysts said that Monday's dour market mood is part Federal Reserve and part China following the warning from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) that banks there needed to do a better job of managing their cash and lending.
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This stock downturn could be the start of another summer swoon, Doll said in a "Squawk Box" interview. But, he added, "absent a bad economy—which we got [in] those earlier summers when we had the double digit percentage declines—I don't think this decline will be this big."
The recent pickup in stock volatility intensified last week after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke set a timetable for the possible tapering of the central bank's $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program.
"Pauses are normal. We got so used to the stock market kind of going up almost everyday. There was a long period when we didn't have two down days in a row," Doll said. "So I think we've gotten spoiled and complacent." It's going to take some "time and consolidation" before stocks can resume their upward trend, he added.
While the Fed doesn't expect to raise near-zero interest rates anytime soon, the bond market isn't waiting. The yield on the 10-year Treasury punched through the 2.60 percent level in early Monday trading.
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"Maybe the positive side of all this is to say, 'Look, we were in a place where we were concerned about the big black hole. The big black hole is not happening,'" Doll said, offering that rates shouldn't be at 1.60 percent right now and that 2.60 percent on the 10-year is OK.
Doll is chief equity strategist and senior portfolio manager at Nuveen Asset Management.