CCTV Script 01/07/13
— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on July 1, Monday.
Welcome to the CNBC Business Daily.
Here are some key event risks that you need to be on a look out for.
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets tomorrow and the majority of analysts polled by Reuters expect the central bank to keep rates at a record low of 2.75 percent.
Analysts say that the RBA is likely to welcome the recent decline in the Aussie and maintain its easing bias.
[Sound on tape by Ray Attrill, Co-Head of FX Strategy, NAB: We do think that there probably will be one more rate cut in this cycle but we're not tipping that until the fourth quarter of this year. Remember the AUD has fallen quite a long way quite quickly and that does mean that the financial conditions or broadly the economy will be getting support from a weaker currency]
[Sound on tape by Clifford Bennett, Chief Economist, White Crane Reports: Certainly our domestic economic slowdown and dark political sort of ruckus actions that have been going on in Australia certainly hasn't helped the currency. I think also you know the market seems to be surprised by strong economic data in the US and the strengthening of the US dollar on the back of tapering hasn't help the Aussie either.]
We will also hear from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England later in the week.
According to a Reuters poll, the ECB is widely expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 0.5 percent. Analysts are hopeful that ECB President Mario Draghi will reiterate that the central bank is a long way from abandoning its accommodative policy stance.
Meantime, the BoE concludes its 2-day policy meeting on Thursday. It will be the first under ex-Bank of Canada chief Mark Carney, who takes over chairmanship of the central bank today. Carney's arrival has led investors to bet that the pound will weaken further.
Investors will also be on a lookout for any forward guidance initiative from the bank, which will bring it in-line with the U.S. Federal Reserve. Carney introduced forward guidance at the Bank of Canada in 2009.
Over in the U.S, all eyes will be on the jobs data due Friday.
Trading volume is likely to be thin this week, with a half-day session on Wednesday. Markets will be shut on Thursday for the Independence Day holiday.
Analysts polled by Reuters expect the nonfarm June payrolls report to show that the economy added 166,000 jobs. While the unemployment rate is expected to dip to 7.5%
Analysts told CNBC that while the job numbers are important, investors should also be paying close attention to other economic indicators.
Have a listen.
[Sound on tape by Andrew Freris, Chief Investment Advisor, BNP Paribas Wealth Management: If the numbers are bad in other words they come well below expectations you know i have a funny feeling that the markets will not be symmetrical.]
[Sound on tape by Ray Attrill, Co-Head of FX Strategy, NAB: Well, I think you know we're always used to "bigging" up the significance of the nonfarm payrolls report but i actually think that it's almost impossible to underestimate the importance of the next couple of months numbers.]
[Sound on tape by Sailesh Jha, Chief Strategist, Arcus Capital: We don't think that a number, such as nonfarm payrolls in itself or other high frequency data is going to get the Fed to move as what the market had expected coming out of the last FOMC. What the market should be looking at in our assessment as to what the Fed is looking at is looking at the quality of the improvement in the employment situation, related to the college graduates as well as job creation in the SME sector and also looking at the outlook for investment spending for per let's say essentially CEO surveys on the next 6 to 12 months outlook on investment spending.]
Li Sixuan, from CNBC's Asia headquarters.