The smart way to play crude

Crude has had an incredible run over the past two weeks. But I'd think twice before hopping aboard this speeding train.

At today's highs, August crude oil futures was up more than 12 percent in two and a half weeks. It would be easy to attribute this rally to tensions in Egypt, but that would tell only part of the story. Both crude and S&P futures began their move on June 24, and although the move in stocks hasn't been as dramatic, it's reasonable to assume that part of crude's move is due to a prevailing risk-on mentality.

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Matthew D White | Peter Arnold | Getty Images

Crude's longer-term chart makes me think that prices north of $99.50 a barrel may be around for some time. That being said, if crude chooses to make a run for $110 without a reasonable pullback, it will have to do it without me, because I cannot pull the trigger and establish a long position at current levels.

If crude pulls back to $100, however, I would consider getting long. For this trade, I would target the March 2012 highs around $110. A settle back below $99.50 would change my bullish bias to neutral, and I would throw in the towel on the trade.

Jim Iuorio is the managing director of TJM Institutional Services. Follow him on Twitter @JimIuorio.

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