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US Oil Boom to Erode OPEC Market Share in 2014: IEA

Thursday, 11 Jul 2013 | 4:51 AM ET
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The North American shale oil boom could spur the biggest rise in non-OPEC supply growth in the past decades next year helping meet strong global demand and eroding the market share of OPEC countries, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.

The West's energy agency said in its monthly report that even though global oil demand growth in 2014 will rise to its strongest levels since 2010, the supply picture remained quite comfortable, meaning oil prices should avoid steep spikes.

"The 2014 outlook... should give oil bulls some cause for alarm. Non-OPEC supply growth looks on track to hit a 20year record next year, surpassing the 1.3 million bpd high reached in 2002," the IEA said.

(Read More: The China Rival With Most to Gain From Its Slowdown)

While demand growth is also forecast to gain momentum, rising to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2014 from 0.930 million bpd in 2013, this will still fall short of forecast nonOPEC supply growth.

As a result, the need for OPEC oil will decline. The IEA said the "call" on OPEC crude is set to edge down in 2014 to 29.4 million bpd from 29.6 million this year and versus current OPEC production of 30.61 million bpd.

The picture painted by the IEA represents a dramatic change in patterns seen in recent decades when the world was expected to get increasingly reliant on OPEC's oil with supplies from other regions declining or remaining stagnant.

In 2014, North American supply is expected to grow by close to 1 million bpd and other countries including Brazil and Kazakhstan are also expected to contribute.

(Read More: OPEC Says Commodity Supercycle Waning, Little Upside)

Major presalt projects in Brazil, the Kashagan field in Kazakhstan, West Chirag in Azerbaijan, and new fields in the North Sea are expected to offset declining production elsewhere.

"Production could prove even higher than forecast in Russia, the United States, Canada, and Brazil, especially if prices remain at or above current levels," the IEA said.

On the demand side, China is forecast to remain the main engine of demand growth in 2014 adding 385,000 bpd, followed by the rest of non-OECD Asia adding 325,000 bpd and the Middle East, where demand should rise by 225,000 bpd.

"While demand in the OECD region is expected to contract, it will do so at a much slower pace than has been the case in the last few years since the 2008 financial crisis, edging down by 0.4 percent in 2014 compared to the 0.8 percent drop of 2013."

Top oil consumer the United States will see a modest 0.1 percent drop in demand to 18.6 million bpd in 2014, as efficiency gains continue to dampen the U.S. demand outlook.

In China, the world's No.2 oil user, the IEA sees growth of 3.9 percent, taking 2014 consumption to around 10.3 million bpd.


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