Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Associates, said the St. John Irving refinery in Canada, which typically sends 120,000 to 125,000 barrels a day to the Northeast, is currently sending little because of shutdowns of its catalytic crackers. He said the Phillips 66 refinery in New Jersey and the Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery in Pennsylvania are both conducting maintenance.
"That's impacting some amount of gasoline," he said. But refineries are also pumping out more product than ever. Gasoline was averaging $3.98 in Connecticut on Wednesday, $3.70 in Massachusetts, $3.78 in Rhode Island and $3.74 in Maine. The highest prices for gasoline are on the West Coast; the average price per gallon in California is more than $4 a gallon.
Gasoline production averaged 9 million barrels per day last week, according to EIA.
"We hit another all-time record for distillate oil product this week—5.08 million barrels a day, which was higher than last week," Lipow said. "In addition, the refiners continue to produce 500,000 barrels more a day this year than last year due to more capacity that's come online. One of the big-picture issues you're going to continue to see is a decline in crude oil inventories as we run at higher rates and turn it into product."
Increased shipments of crude by rail and the reversal of several pipelines have enabled more shipments of WTI crude out of Cushing, Okla. Oil produced in the U.S. had been landlocked there and is finally flowing more freely around the center, a factor helping to lift its price closer to that for international Brent crude.
"If we see further increases, it will be because of supply," Kloza said.
Traders have gotten overly exciting about rising prices, he said. "It's very much a mixed bag. I don't think there's anything to worry about there because domestic crude oil production is really rising."
—By CNBC's Patti Domm