Hold the cream, Cramer likes soy milk in portfolio
Healthy eating is all the rage, yet one stock has underperformed its peers. Cramer thinks that's about to change.
The Mad Money host suggests putting WhiteWave on the radar, the maker of Silk and Horizon Organic milk as a stock that's ready for a game of organic catch-up.
Although shares have already rallied about 20% ytd, healthy eating is such a hot trend, Cramer thinks WhiteWave should have advanced even more aggressively. For example, rival natural food maker Annie's has gained more than 30% while Hain is up more than 35%. And natural food market Fairway is up nearly 50%.
Looking at WhiteWave's business, Cramer thinks the relative underperformance was largely due to a handful of factors:
1. Earnings were underwhelming. "WhiteWave earned 16-cents a share, slightly beating the estimates by a penny, but organic foods are so trendy the Street expected even more," Cramer said.
2. The Street wanted greater earnings growth. Cramer said instead of showing earnings growth now, "White Wave has been investing aggressively in order to boost future earnings growth down the road." For example, in the latest quarter the company started up almond milk production at two more of its plants investing more money in one of their fastest growing products.
3. Former parent Dean Foods distributed a huge chunk of WhiteWave, a 60% stake, to its own shareholders back on May 23rd. "That dramatically increased the float here, and most of the Dean Foods shareholders who got a piece of WhiteWave just dumped the darned thing," Cramer said.
Although these catalysts held WhiteWave back – the Mad Money host thinks there's every reason to believe the tide is turning.
"Last week, two things happened that gave the bulls a real boost," Cramer said. "First, last Wednesday WhiteWave finally priced an anticipated secondary offering at $17.75 a share, so we know that won't be hanging over our heads any longer. I now regard $17.75 as a floor. Second, WhiteWave gave upside revenue guidance for the second quarter, which indicates to me that when the company reports on August 9th, the results should be strong."
Looking forward, Cramer thinks the Street will come to favor the stock for other reasons, too.
"On an earnings basis, WhiteWave is super cheap compared to its cohorts," Cramer said. Consider that WhiteWave sells for about 22 times next year's earnings estimates with a 20% long-term growth rate. Meanwhile, Hain Celestial sells for a higher multiple, 25 times next year's earnings, even though it has a lower 16.7% long-term growth rate. And Annie's sells for 36 times earnings, and it's only growing a couple of percentage points faster than WhiteWave, at 22.5%."
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Therefore, the Mad Money host thinks it's just a matter of time before the stock plays a game of catch-up relative to peers.
"If WhiteWave were to get the same price to earnings multiple as Hain then the stock would trade to $21, roughly 12% higher than where it is now," said Cramer.
However, the Mad Money host thinks $21 might be a low-ball target.
"Hain trades at 1.5 times its growth rate, while Annie's trades at 1.6 times growth, and if WhiteWave were to receive a similar valuation relative to its growth rate, the stock would trade at 31 times earnings or $26, a 40% gain from here," Cramer said.
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