What to expect in US dollar, euro trade

Wednesday, 31 Jul 2013 | 6:24 PM ET
The strong dollar trade
Wednesday, 31 Jul 2013 | 5:40 PM ET
How is the Fed statement impacting currencies and the U.S. Dollar? Jens Nordvig, Nomura Securities, offers insight. Also, "Fast Money" trader Karen Finerman, weighs in on the debate of who may replace Fed Chair Ben Bernanke.

Key factors suggest directional trades for the U.S. dollar and the euro, Nomura's Jens Norvig said Wednesday.

The first: Tapering.

"I stick with the view that we're going to see tapering in September," Norvig said. "I think the Fed has decided that's what they want to do, unless the data really goes off-track. So, I think that could be a catalyst, but I think the data is key now."

On CNBC's "Fast Money," he cited a jobs report from ADP and Moody's Analytics that showed the addition of 200,000 private-sector jobs in July.

(Read more: Private sector makes big hiring move)

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Options traders are getting bullish on MasterCard, with CNBC contributor Mike Khouw of Dash Financial Group.

Although the number was "not important," Norvig noted that stocks moved higher on the pre-market news.

(Read more: Big jobs number coming? Data firm TrimTabs says just 23,000)

"I think we'll see more of that in the next couple of weeks," he added.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 21.05 points to close at 15,499.54 after hitting a new intraday record high of 15,634.32. The S&P 500 erased 0.23 points to end at 1,685.72.

(Read more: Stocks close mixed but post best July since 2010; FB ends below $38)

Norvig also said that he saw a hint of trouble across the pond.

"I think if you look at the trade-weighted euro – like, factoring in all the different crosses – it's grinding higher, almost since February, now," he said. "And this is a problem.

"Over time, that's going to be a dent into growth, and it's going to put the euro zone further into deflationary territory. They already have below-target inflation."

By CNBC's Bruno J. Navarro. Follow him on Twitter @Bruno_J_Navarro.

Trader disclosure: On July 31, 2013, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC's "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders: Karen Finerman is long AAPL; Karen Finerman is long BAC; Karen Finerman is long C; Karen Finerman is long JPM; Karen Finerman is long TGT; Karen Finerman is long GOOG; Karen Finerman is long EBAY; Karen Finerman is long M; Karen Finerman is long DIS; Karen Finerman is long GM; Karen Finerman is long AIG; Karen Finerman is long SODA; Karen Finerman is long SPY; Karen Finerman is long MDY PUTS; Guy Adami is long C; Guy Adami is long GS; Guy Adami is long INTC; Guy Adami is long MSFT; Guy Adami is long AGU; Guy Adami is long NUE; Guy Adami is long BTU; Guy Adami's wife, Linda Snow, works at Merck; Tim Seymour is long BAC; Tim Seymour is long SBUX; Tim Seymour is long GM; Tim Seymour is long POT; Tim Seymour is long WLT; Brian Kelly is long Yen; Brian Kelly is short US dollar; Brian Kelly is short Copper; Brian Kelly is short Silver; Brian Kelly is short British Pound; Brian Kelly is short Aussie.

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