TAKE A LOOK-Five world markets themes in the coming week
LONDON, Aug 2 (Reuters) - Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week, scheduled events and Reuters stories related to them.
1/ STILL SEPTEMBER
The Federal Reserve gave no indication after its policy meeting that it will begin scaling back stimulus in September but recent strong U.S. data had left that as markets' best guess. The lacklustre U.S. July payrolls report will likely keep everyone guessing, however, with more underlying strength in incoming data probably required to keep the dollar and bond yields pumped up and emerging markets under pressure.
* U.S. trade data due Tuesday, consumer credit data Wednesday
* U.S. Treasury sells $72 billion of bonds in coming week
* Fed buys itself some time in push to wind down stimulus
2/ STAY LOOSE
Developed market stocks, too, are being buoyed up by signs of the U.S. recovery gaining traction, a pick-up in the recession-hit euro zone and the fact that, at least for now, major central banks are sticking with accommodative monetary policy. Global investors, who have responded by boosting holdings of euro zone stocks and bonds and cutting exposure to emerging market shares, will keep a close eye on a slew of Chinese data releases in the coming week for clues to the extent of the slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. Italian GDP data, due on Tuesday, will draw attention given the uncertain political backdrop after the supreme court upheld former premier Silvio Berlusconi's tax fraud conviction.
* Chinese trade data due Thursday, inflation/industrial output/retail sales due Friday
* Romania rate decision due Monday
* Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision Tuesday, South Korea/Serbia rate decisions due Thursday
* Activity picks up at big China factories, smaller firms struggle
3/ LOW FOR HOW LONG?
Hard on the heels of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the Bank of England is set to announce, along with its quarterly inflation report, whether it, too, will issue "forward guidance" on its monetary policy outlook. Any pledge to keep rates low and tie future policy to either UK growth or unemployment could prompt a renewed bout of selling in the pound and a rally in the short sterling strip.
* Bank of England issues quarterly inflation report on Aug. 7
* Bank of England holds fire before guidance announcement
* BREAKINGVIEWS-UK's forward guidance could end with rate spike
4/ GREEN SHOOTS
Tentative signs of economic recovery in Europe are being reflected in company results. Half way through the earnings season, just over 50 percent have met or beaten profit forecasts, Thomson Reuters StarMine data shows. The standout performer, however, is France, with nearly 80 percent of firms exceeding analysts' expectations. In a show of improved sentiment, earnings momentum - upgrades minus downgrades - is about to turn positive in Germany for the first time in a year and is picking up sharply in other euro zone countries.
* Earnings diaries
* Firms serving the thrifty as Europe slowly recovers
* As Europe struggles, companies focus on cost cuts
ECB chief Mario Draghi ended his post-meeting news conference by wishing everyone a happy holiday. But, if there is an August lull, thoughts of a stormy September may not be far from investors' minds. While there has been a muted reaction in financial markets to Berlusconi's tax conviction, analysts say the impact on the coalition government may not be clear for several weeks. September also brings the German election, the run-up to which has frozen EU decision-making and arguably kept a lid on potential political flashpoints. All that and maybe the start of Fed tapering.
* Berlusconi conviction leaves Italian government hanging
* Merkel coalition takes lead in poll for first time in four years
* Political and general news diary
* U.S. President Barack Obama meets Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras in Washington on Thursday
(Compiled by Nigel Stephenson; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)