‘Near-term corrective mode’: Pro
Plenty of good news is priced into the stock market already, which means equity prices could founder over the next few months, Gluskin Sheff Chief Economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday.
"I think over the near term, the very near term, I can see the market struggling," he said. "I'm sure that comes as a big surprise, but I think we're fully priced right now."
On CNBC's "Fast Money," Rosenberg noted a few key numbers.
"You have price/earnings ratios bumping against cycle highs," he said. "Margin debt is up 32 percent year over year. … My sense is that the economy is weak earnings and revenue growth are back in low single digits. We just have to deal with the tapering issue, and that's a matter of when, not if. The market is battling against bond yields at 100 basis points higher than they were a few months ago, so my sense right now is I'm probably more agnostic than anything else, but I could see the market struggling over the next couple of weeks and months."
Rosenberg was clear to specify that he was positive on the long-term outlook for the stock market.
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"I don't think we're going to go into a sustained bear market unless we fall back into recession or the Fed actually starts to tighten liquidity," he said. "The overall bull market conditions are in place, but in terms of a correction, my work shows that at this stage of the liquidity and business cycle, the market's usually up at an 11 or 12 percent annual rate."
Rosenberg also noted that before today, the stock market was up 18 percent for the year.
"I think it would perfectly normal, and I would say healthy for the market, to enter into a near-term corrective mode but that opens up another leg in terms of a buying opportunity."
A market correction, he added, wouldn't be "anything dramatic."
Rosenberg also made his case for why he believed Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Janet Yellen should succeed Chairman Ben Bernanke.
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"I would say the three major factors behind this choice should be experience, experience and experience," he said. "Mark Carney didn't get the top job at the Bank of England because he's got friends over in London or because he was a big shot at Goldman Sachs.
"The reality is that he built up a dossier at the Bank of Canada as being a preeminent central central banker, so it comes down to experience in monetary policymaking, and she's got 12 years of it at a a very senior level, three years as governor when (former Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan was at the helm and six years as head of what I would argue is the second most important bank, which is the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and another three years as vice-chair."
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Rosenberg also said that Yellen was the only one in "government circles that saw the clouds coming on the housing market and in the credit market.
"She got the call bang-on," he added. "I think she should be hands-on the next Fed chairman."