UPDATE 3-GRAINS - U.S. soy extends rebound from 14-month low
* Soy buoyed by export demand, expected cut in USDA forecast
* Weather jitters also begin to buoy soy
* New-crop soy recovering from 14-month low this week
* New-crop corn hovers close to nearly three-year low
* Bumper U.S. crop outlook continues to weigh
(Updates prices, adds fresh analyst quotes, changes dateline from PARIS/SINGAPORE) CHICAGO, Aug 9 (Reuters) - U.S. new-crop soybean futures climbed to a one-week high on Friday, rebounding from a 14-month low at mid-week, with gains tied to weather jitters and positioning before a government crop report due Monday. Slow wheat exports weighed on wheat futures, and prospects for a record large U.S. corn crop kept pressure on corn futures. Traders and analysts said the market focus was on the rebounding soybean futures market. "They've pushed the market so far down that it's pretty much like a rubber band that's going to snap back, especially here before a government report," said Sterling Smith, futures specialist for Citigroup. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Monday is to release its August crop report. In a Reuters poll, analysts' average estimate pegged 2013 U.S. soy production at a record high 3.338 billion bushels, and corn at a record 13.980 billion Bushels. "I don't think there will be a surprise, but the market is preparing for a surprise in Monday's report," Smith said. Traders said the soy forecast likely would remain at a record high, even though the consensus is that the USDA will reduce its forecast from July. "The USDA is likely to reduce its soybean crop estimate, so investors are covering short positions ahead of the report," said Kaname Gokon, deputy general manager at Tokyo-based Okato Shoji Co. Concerns that an early frost could harm the immature corn and soybean crops helped underpin corn futures and buoyed soybean prices, as did a turn to drier weather in the U.S. in August, the critical month for the pod-setting stage of soybean development. "Some of this rally is due to talk about what an early frost could do, and yes there is a frost risk here because of the immaturity of the crop," Smith said. "But I've talked to meteorologists and there is absolutely no correlation between a cool summer and an early frost." Moderate temperatures for the next couple of weeks will aid growth and development of U.S. corn and soybeans, but lack of rain is becoming an issue, an agricultural meteorologist said on Friday. "We're still looking at a benign temperature scenario, temperatures below normal. But there is also below-normal rainfall, and soybeans could use some more rain," said John Dee, meteorologist for Global Weather Monitoring. "There is a little nervousness about dryness in Iowa coming into pod set," Smith said. Soybeans have also found impetus in export demand, with top buyer China reporting record-high imports for July and U.S. weekly new-crop export sales on Thursday above expectations.
Like other commodity markets, soy was also buoyed by better-than-expected Chinese trade data on Thursday, which spurred hopes that the world's second-largest economy is emerging from a period of slowing growth. At 9:25 a.m. CDT (1425 GMT), CBOT soybeans for November delivery were up 7 cents per bushel at $11.91-1/4. Corn edged down, with prices still curbed by favorable crop weather that is reinforcing the prospect of a record U.S. harvest. CBOT new-crop December corn was down 1-1/4 cents at $4.58-1/2 per bushel. "With the first USDA survey of corn yields due next week, further spot price weakness is likely if yields prove better than our expectation of 157 bushels/acre," JPMorgan analysts said in a note. Private forecaster Lanworth on Friday raised its forecast for the U.S. corn crop and also increased its soybean outlook.
CBOT September wheat futures were down 2-3/4 cents at $6.38-1/2 per bushel. Pressure from corn and export competition from Black Sea and Australian suppliers continued to keep a lid on wheat prices. Prices at 9:34 a.m. CDT (1434 GMT)
LAST NET PCT YTD CHG CHG CHG CBOT corn 472.25 -1.25 -0.3% -32.4% CBOT soy 1361.00 5.25 0.4% -4.1% CBOT meal 425.40 2.90 0.7% 1.1% CBOT soyoil 41.81 0.16 0.4% -15.0% CBOT wheat 639.25 -2.00 -0.3% -17.8% CBOT rice 1527.50 -0.50 0.0% 2.8% EU wheat 183.50 0.50 0.3% -26.7% US crude 104.99 1.59 1.5% 14.3% Dow Jones 15,451 -47 -0.3% 17.9% Gold 1308.76 -2.63 -0.2% -21.8% Euro/dollar 1.3352 -0.0027 -0.2% 1.2% Dollar Index 81.0850 0.1080 0.1% 1.6% Baltic Freight 1001 -11 -1.1% 43.2%
(Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore; Editing by John Wallace)