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Despite glut, Cramer hears nat gas poised for rally

(Click for video linked to a searchable transcript of this Mad Money segment)

It may seem hard to believe, but nat gas may have what it takes to make a major move higher.

That's what Cramer is hearing from his RealMoney.com colleague, Carley Garner, the co-founder of DeCarley Trading and author of A Trader's First Book on Commodities.

Garner is a technical analyst and she likes what she sees in the charts. Looking at the Relative Strength Index or RSI, and the Williams %R Oscillator, she says both of these indicators are in oversold territory.

Typically, that signals a move higher. And if a rally comes, it could come hard and fast.

As of last week, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, large speculators, were holding a net short position in natural gas of about 125,000 contracts, an extremely bearish bet. Therefore, Garner thinks that if prices rally, it could generate a short squeeze as bears run for cover.

But those aren't the only constructive developments.

Posteriori | E+ | Getty Images

In addition, Garner believes nat gas made a key reversal earlier this month. She points out that natural gas had been trading in a pretty well-defined downtrend channel since May with the bottom of the channel at $3.20. On August 8th, she says the price of natural gas slipped below that level intraday but quickly reversed to end the day above $3.20. That kind of key reversal signals to Garner a trend change could be imminent

If Garner is right and nat gas starts to rally, chart patterns suggest to her $3.80 is a key level, in the past it's been a level of strong resistance. Garner, however, thinks it's possible that natural gas could break out through that level, in part because of the calendar.

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Natural gas usually experiences a meaningful low either in late July or early August—then it starts to come back as utilities begin stocking up on the commodity for the coming winter

After $3.80, Garner says the next key level is the July high near $4.40. For Garner, that could be where this rally peters out unless positive developments emerge on the fundamental side. However, if they do come then she can see nat gas trading as high as $5.20 before running out of steam.

Cramer finds the analysis intriguing. "Garner's been on a roll lately. I would not be surprised if she's right, once again," he said.

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