Continuing to track market leadership, we have seen various sectors take the baton and run during the last few, Fed-influenced years. As someone who cut his teeth in the rugged bond pits of Chicago, I will always have a Treasury ticker in view. But lately, we have been laser-focused on the Nasdaq—and Nasdaq-100 futures specifically.
Since the June 24 equity lows, the Nasdaq-100 has indeed been a market leader. It logged a 8.8 percent gain from those June lows to the early August highs—compare that to the Dow's 7.7 percent gain and the S&P's 5.9 percent rise. Since those high prints, the thin, whippy August trading environment has eroded 4.5 percent off the Dow and 3.8 percent off the S&P, but the Nasdaq e-mini has dropped a mere 2.5 percent.
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That means that as of Wednesday's FOMC minutes release, the Nasdaq has still retained twice as much of its gains as its peer indexes.
So how do we trade this market leader now?
We are locked in on 3,025 in the Nasdaq E-mini futures as the overall market's line in the sand. This technical level, if held, will keep this bull market intact. However, if we see this level violated … timber!
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In that case, the "Naz" should retest its June 24 low of 2,817, which is another 8 percent lower. And even worse, the Nasdaq-100 would likely drag all global equity markets down alongside it.