Strategist who correctly called rupee, rupiah collapse
Emerging markets strategist Peter Redward, who correctly predicted a sharp slide in the Indian rupee and Indonesia rupiah, has warned the selling isn't yet over for the countries struggling to narrow current account deficits.
In a research report published by the firm on September 4, 2012 entitled 'INR's vulnerability is rising, again', Redward projected a 12-month target for the rupee of 62 against the U.S. dollar. The currency hit that level last Friday.
And, in August 13, 2012, the former Singapore-based Head of Emerging Asia research at Barclays Capital also forecast a slump in the Indonesia rupiah to 10,700 in 12 months, a level reached on Tuesday.
Both were contrarian bets.
When Redward Associates Ltd. – the independent research firm he formed in 2011 after leaving Barclays – released the forecasts last year, consensus estimates pointed to the India's currency strengthening to 53 and the rupiah to 9,200, Redward said.
"The current account deficit," Redward noted in the September report, "is likely to remain a significant headwind for India for the foreseeable future."
India is currently struggling with high inflation, slowing growth, a ballooning current account deficit at 4.8 percent of GDP and a record low currency. At the core of the problem – foreign capital outflows precipitated by expectations cheap liquidity will come to an end with the September wind-down in the U.S. Federal Reserve's asset purchase program.
Though capital inflows were robust at the time of Redward's September report, they remained "highly sensitive to fluctuations in global commodity prices, and global risk appetite. He added: "The mere stalling of capital inflows will renew pressure on rupee."
(Read more: What's really holding back growth in India)
Despite sporadic central bank intervention, the rupee sank to a new trough on Wednesday of 64.5450 to the dollar. A move in the rupee to 70.00 "is achievable," said Redward in emailed comments to CNBC.