"Real" supply shortages from Libya pose a greater immediate risk to oil markets than the threat of military action against Syria, Credit Suisse commodity analysts argued.
"Whereas Syria has little production to lose, Libyan instability is causing an acute supply disruption," Jan Stuart and Johannes Van Der Tuin wrote in the report on Tuesday.
Brent crude futures surged to a six-month high on Tuesday, reflecting fears that punitive air strikes against Bashar Al-Assad's government may be days away after the regime allegedly used chemical weapons last week in an attack on a Damascus suburb.
Syria was a secondary factor behind oil's surge yesterday, which Credit Suisse saw as chiefly driven by "the likely prolonged absence of more than 1.0 million barrels per day of Libyan oil exports."
(Read more: US strike against Syria 'as early as Thursday')
U.S.-led strikes against Syria are unlikely to have a direct effect on the oil supply and demand balance since Syria produces minimal volumes of oil.
Pre–2011, Syria only produced about 385,000 barrels a day of liquids, "which have essentially been offline since the conflict began," Stuart and Van Der Tuin said.