Now that the U.S. and its allies are convinced that Syria used chemical weapons on its own people, military action against Syria seems to be a foregone conclusion.
In my view, it's not a matter of "if," it's a matter of "when." U.S. officials told NBC News that military action could come as early as Thursday, and we have already seen crude rise 5 percent in anticipation of a strike.
When a strike happens, how high could we see crude trade? History tells us that once military action begins, if it looks like the action is contained to the targeted country, then oil will sell off. But it all depends on what the response to the strike is.
If we see Syria's allies in the region get involved—namely Iran and Russia—we could see crude rise as high as $115 or $120 rapidly. If the conflict turns out to be a prolonged situation, then we could see $125.
(Read more: Syria recalls Rumsfeld's law of 'unknown unknowns')
The fallout from higher crude prices is higher gasoline prices. After the Labor Day holiday, we usually see gas prices start to come off at the pump. The reason for this is simple—that is when summer driving season comes to an end, and when it does, demand falls. But this year, different factors are coming to the fore.