Gold, Copper look ripe for shorts: Hedge fund founder

Tuesday, 3 Sep 2013 | 6:41 PM ET
Stay out of gold?
Tuesday, 3 Sep 2013 | 5:40 PM ET
August marks the biggest gain for gold since January of 2012. Kathleen Kelley, founder of Queen Anne's Gate Capital, discusses the impact of Syria on the metal, and strategies for investors.

While both gold and copper have rallied since mid-summer, investors should begin to consider a short position in the two commodities, Kathleen Kelley, founder of Queen Anne's Gate Capital Management, a New-York based hedge fund, told CNBC.

Kelley said that for the dynamics of the gold trade, buying behavior is changing. With ETFs buying less of it, speculators are beginning to dominate the market, she said.

"People have gotten out of their [gold holdings] as they've seen the macro landscape change... It's not a physical story, it's a speculative hedge," she told "Fast Money" Tuesday. The major catalyst for a downward move in gold will be ETF outflows, Kelley predicted.

(Read more: Retail investors fled ETFs in August: Pro)

Another major signal for a move lower in gold will be when miners begin to buy back hedges as well as when "one-off" events, such as miner strikes in South Africa, subside.

"Short term [in gold], you'll continue higher, but I do think this 1425-1450 level is fairly key here," she said, noting that if Fed tapering doesn't happen in September, gold's reaction will be to the upside.

(Related: Why Marc Faber likes gold, treasurys)

Although rising treasury yields are suggesting that growth is on the horizon, Kelley suggested that this is not as bullish for commodities as investors would traditionally expect. She said she expects the U.S. growth story to continue, while Europe is showing signs of going "another leg lower." Because of this, she said that investors can't expect global demand to be the sole factor driving industrial commodity prices higher.

The commodity that Kelley sees as a clear outlier is Copper, which she also sees as a potential short opportunity.

"Copper has the most bearish story right now and I think part of that is just because of supply," she said, pointing to 2013 production increases in Chile as well as lagging demand and increased supply in China.

"Copper is definitely far off from its fair value, from its average price of production. It's probably the furthest off of most commodities," she added.

— By CNBC's Paul Toscano. Follow him on Twitter @ToscanoPaul

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