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Top technician is sure that gold's going to $1,200

Thursday, 5 Sep 2013 | 3:21 PM ET
RBC's top technician: Gold will fall to $1,200
Thursday, 5 Sep 2013 | 1:07 PM ET
George Davis of RBC Capital Markets says gold is going to $1,200—and he brought along a chart to prove it, with CNBC's Jackie DeAngelis and the "Futures Now" traders.

Think you had a tough week? Don't go complaining to gold. The yellow metal has declined by almost 5 percent since last Wednesday's high—and RBC's top technician thinks it's about to get even worse.

"We're sticking on the bearish side for gold prices," said George Davis on Thursday's "Futures Now."

Davis, the chief technical analyst at RBC Capital Markets, thinks little of gold's 22 percent rally from the June low. "You are seeing a little bit of a corrective rally, and I think a lot of that has been driven by geopolitical risks emanating out of Syria," Davis said. "But we do think that those are going to be transitory, so the very short-term risks are going to pass."

(Read more: Gold has become a 'Humpty Dumpty' trade)

That's why Davis says it's high time to get short. "Valuations are starting to become more overbought at this juncture," he said. "I think there's a window of opportunity where you could leg into some short positions."

So what does he see on the chart that points toward lower prices?


Steven Puetzer | Getty Images

Well, Davis says that when gold prices tanked in April and May, "we broke through the base of a triangle pattern, which was the first sign that we were potentially going through a trend reversal." And for Davis, the geopolitical-flavored correction back from the lows has done nothing to reverse gold's downtrend.

(Read more: Why the options market is telling you to buy gold)

"We are looking for a return back down to the $1,275 level as a medium-term target," he said. Eventually, Davis thinks gold will "retest" to the $1,200 level. After all, that's roughly the level that gold bounced off of in July 2010, and then again in June 2013.

(Read more: Here's what Marc Faber likes more than gold)

So $1,200 is the eventual target. But how about the rest of the trade?

Davis advises "using short-term rallies to the $1,427 to $1,487 level as a selling opportunity." And on the upside, he recommends using the well-tested $1,530 level as a stop loss.

Until we hit $1,530, however, this top technician is advising gold holders to look out below.

—By CNBC's Alex Rosenberg. Follow him on Twitter: @C NBCAlex.

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