Market expects $15 billion Fed taper soon: CNBC survey
The market is agreed: It's Yellen and a taper.
Former Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn barely registered in second with just 6.3 percent of the votes.
Regarding policy, the September survey of 47 economists, money managers and Wall Street strategists found they expect on average a nearly $15 billion taper, with a plurality expecting the taper to be announced on Wednesday after the Fed's two-day meeting.
(Read more: Fed taper likely to be announced this week: El-Erian)
Respondents expect the reduction in asset purchases by the Fed will focus far more on Treasury purchases than mortgage-backed securities. The Fed has been buying both assets as part of its most recent quantitative easing program launched in September 2012 designed to drive down long-term interest rates, reduce unemployment and spur economic growth.
Respondents believe that 72 percent of the taper will come from reduced Treasury purchases and 28 percent from MBS.
About 48 percent of respondents expect the taper to occur this month, and more than half see it happening by October, about unchanged from the July survey.
The current QE3 program is seen ending in August. Market participants believe the taper is largely priced in, with respondents saying that 81 percent of the impact is already discounted in Treasury and mortgage markets and around 70 percent is in the stock market.
Guy LeBas of Janney Montgomery Scott wrote in response to the survey, "The taper is hands down the single most clearly telegraphed move in the history of monetary policy."
But there was some disagreement about whether this was the right policy for the Fed. Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors said the economic data do not support a decision to taper. "(The economy) is still not strong enough for the Fed to declare victory. Instead, concerns about market damage and inflation are driving the decision making."
Market participants appear to be bracing for higher interest rates and only small gains in stocks. The yield on the U.S. 10-year note is seen hitting 3.4 percent by next summer. In the June survey, participants thought the benchmark 10-year yield would hit only 2.8 percent by that time.
Stocks are seen only about 3 percent higher next June, and participants actually see a slight decline by year-end for the S&P 500 stock index to 1,685.