Market expects $15 billion Fed taper soon: CNBC survey
The survey respondents, however, have not done a good job predicting the market rise for much of this year. Their forecasts continue to chase the market higher.
Respondents are sticking to their forecasts for stronger economic growth next year. Gross domestic product is forecast to grow 2.6 percent year-on-year in 2014, up from a 2 percent forecast for 2013.
The probability of recession remains at a low 16.9 percent, one of the lowest three readings since the question began being asked in 2011. The probability is up a bit from the 16.2 percent reading in July.
The market outlook for the Fed funds rate next year is more dovish right now than the Fed's own outlook.
Respondents see the funds rate at just 21 basis points by the end of next year, while Fed officials put the average at 43 basis points. The difference is entirely accounted for by four Fed hawks who see a much higher funds rate than the average of the Federal Open Market Committee.
By 2015, the difference all but disappears with market participants seeing the funds rate at 92 basis points compared with an FOMC average of 87.
Meanwhile, a slight 51 percent majority of participants think the Fed will maintain its guidance to only consider interest rate hikes when the unemployment rate hits 6.5 percent. Forty-four percent believe the Fed will lower the guidance, with the average response forecasting 6 percent. (The government recently reported a 7.3 percent jobless rate for August.)
On political and military issues, market participants see little chance for military action in Syria but seem braced for a debt ceiling fight similar to the last one. Two-thirds of respondents neither expect nor support U.S. military action against Syria. Any military action, however, is estimated to produce a 5 percent hit to equities.
About half of respondents see a debt ceiling fight that mirrors the last one, and a quarter say it could be worse. On average, however, there is a less than 10 percent chance seen that the debt ceiling is not raised and the U.S. defaults.
—By CNBC's Steve Liesman. Follow him on Twitter @steveliesman.