Good news for emerging markets: ‘multi-week rally’ may loom
Societe Generale forecast a lengthy emerging markets rally on Friday, becoming the latest bank to turn bullish on the sector following the Federal Reserve's surprise decision to maintain its $85 billion per month asset purchases.
Emerging markets (EM) stocks, bonds and currencies joined in Wednesday's global surge after the Fed announcement. Markets have since pulled back — although EM assets have held some gains — but analysts said the U.S. central bank's announcement will prove to be a pivotal moment in the longer-term.
(Read more: Let's party! Emerging markets cheer as Fed stays pat)
"After the highly significant Fed message, global emerging markets (GEM) are settling in in a new regime. That new regime is no longer a bear market, in our view," said Societe General analysts in a research note lead-written by EM Strategy Head Benoit Anne.
"While GEM is still in the process of digesting this massive Fed policy surprise, we believe that the market backdrop has strengthened considerably," the note added, saying now was the time to "turn tactically bullish."
With the Fed now likely to maintain pressure on interest rates for longer than forecast, EM assets are seen to be benefiting from the hunt for yield. This was demonstrated over the summer, when as the apparent imminence of tapering caused real U.S. interest rates to shoot up and speculative money rapidly departed markets such as Brazil, India and Turkey.
But following this week's Fed news, Anne forecast a "multi-week" rally, and said that plenty of value remained in EM foreign exchange and interest rates.
EM markets have been quick to take advantage of the improved sentiment so far, with a number of sovereign and quasi-sovereign issuers launching or planning new dollar bond deals. These include Armenia, Colombia, a Brazilian development bank and the Hungarian Development Bank.
Anne added that the better backdrop would likely impact funds flowing back into the emerging markets, with outflows not only decelerating, but reversing.
"While there may be regular episodes of profit-taking over the next few weeks, the Fed signal is a true-game changer, in our view," he said.
Other EM bulls include Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi's Lee Hardman.
"It is more uncertain now whether the Fed will begin to taper quantitative easing by year-end, and even if the economic data improves," he said on Friday. "That uncertainty should help to keep the U.S. dollar on the defensive in the near-term and encourage investors to rebuild carry positions, boosting demand for high-yielding and higher risk emerging currencies."
—By CNBC's Katy Barnato