With bonds in limbo, here’s how to cash in: Pro
Washington's deadlocked negotiations have bled into the Treasury market, as we have been stuck in the same trading range for two weeks now.
Demand for Treasurys increased once the Federal Reserve announced on Sept. 18 that it would maintain its $85 billion worth of asset purchases, rather than begin to taper the pace of that program, as markets expected. Investors used this as a reason to buy Treasurys.
However, as we step into a three-year auction on Tuesday and a 10-year auction on Wednesday, prices have floundered, as investors become wary of the congressional debt ceiling debate. The impasse in Washington is pretty scary, because it could impinge upon the U.S. government's ability to pay its debt in the short term.
(Read more: Prices dip, investors wary before debt showdown)
On the chart, the highs of the 10-year note on Sept. 18 and 19 were 125'29 and 125'31, respectively, and we are currently getting back down to those levels again.
So when it comes to trading, the bottom line is that I want to keep it simple. I'm betting that the U.S. doesn't default, but I do think the shutdown and resolution will go down to the wire, meaning we'll get a resolution around Oct. 17.
As we await that resolution, I'm playing the range. That means I am buying December 10-year note futures at 125'31, and looking to take profits at 126'31. A trade down to 125'24 will stop me out.