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Bears to get 'killed' in October: Trader

Friday, 11 Oct 2013 | 6:42 PM ET
Rather be long than short: Trader
Friday, 11 Oct 2013 | 5:02 PM ET
The "Fast Money" traders discuss the current market environment, and how investors should play stocks come Monday.

Now isn't the time to upend a long-term investment strategy, Josh Brown of Ritholz Wealth Management said Friday.

"Name one significant D.C. event before which it made sense to have a radical shift in your asset allocation," he said. "Every time you tried to play that game, you probably lost."

On CNBC's "Fast Money," Brown looked to the stock market's historical performance.

"A year that gets off to the start this one did, you'd rather be long than short. Trust me on that," he said. "And, typically, October is 'the pivot month,' where the bears really get killed, historically speaking, going back as many decades as you'd like to. So, that's the prevailing sentiment right now."

Stocks closed near session highs, hoisting the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 to finish in the black for the week, as investors grew more optimistic over the progress in Washington.

(Read more: Stocks close near highs amid optimism over DC debt talks; S&P ends above 1,700)

You asked for it trades
The "Fast Money" traders have the play on stocks viewers asked for, including Ford, Sprint, McDonald's and Freeport-McMoran.

Brown also noted that it was likely the deal to be struck by lawmakers in Washington would be a six-week extension of the debt ceiling.

"It's a kick-the-can temporary solution," he added.

Tim Seymour of EmergingMoney.com agreed that investors were looking to stay long the market, although from a short-term perspective it might be a good idea to hold some cash.

"I think it pays to have a little powder," he said.

StockMonster's Guy Adami said that the stock market provided a surprise by doubling the gains he had predicted this week if a deal was near.

"The action today was startling, given what happened yesterday," he said, adding that an actual deal being reached would still push the market higher. "That should give us another 20 to 25 handles."

Adami said that he liked energy stocks such as ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil, the latter of which was holding a share price of $85 to $85.50.

"I think you can trade XOM against that level," he said.

Dan Nathan of RiskReversal.com said that a Washington budget agreement would be a sell-the-news event.

"Once we get a deal, whether it be something for a year or six weeks, we've seen this playbook before," he said. "We're going to be very quickly focused on earnings."

Characterizing the U.S. consumer as "tapped out," Nathan noted lackluster third-quarter earnings for such stocks as Gap, Yum and Limited Brands.

"The longer the shutdown goes, the worse the earnings visibility is going to be for the Q4," he said.

By CNBC's Bruno J. Navarro. Follow him on Twitter @Bruno_J_Navarro.

Trader disclosure: On Oct. 11, 2013, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC's "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders: Guy Adami is long C; Guy Adami is long GS; Guy Adami is long INTC; Guy Adami is long MSFT; Guy Adami is long AGU; Guy Adami is long NUE; Guy Adami is long BTU; Guy Adami's wife, Linda Snow, works at Merck; Dan Nathan is AAPL Long Nov Calls; Dan Nathan is TSLA long Oct Put butterfly; Dan Nathan is NFLX long Oct Put Butterfly; Dan Nathan is XOM Long Nov Call Butterfly; Dan Nathan is GLD Long Dec Put Butterfly; Dan Nathan is WFM long Nov Put Butterfly; Dan Nathan is HD long Nov/Dec Put Spread; Dan Nathan is JNJ Long oct / nov put spread; Dan Nathan is JPM long Oct25th put spread; Tim Seymour is long BAC; Tim Seymour is long SBUX; Tim Seymour is long TSO; Tim Seymour is long VALE; Josh Brown is long VAW

  Price   Change %Change
DJIA
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S&P 500
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COP
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XOM
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GPS
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YUM
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  • Melissa Lee is the host of CNBC's “Fast Money” and “Options Action.”

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  • Najarian, the "Pit Boss," is cofounder of optionMONSTER.com, a news site for options traders.

  • Finerman is president of Metropolitan Capital Advisors, Inc., a company she co-founded.

  • Founder of EmergingMoney.com

  • Chief Market Strategist for Virtus Investment Partners & CNBC Contributor

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