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Buy the rumor ... buy the fact: Shutdown's end feeds rally

Trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
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Trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Why is the market up? There were plenty of traders expecting a "sell on the news" scenario that went like this: As soon as the deal to end the government shutdown was announced, markets would curb their enthusiasm because the focus would be on earnings season. That would make companies lowering fourth-quarter earnings expectations on weaker-than-expected growth.

A lot of traders are eager to see the market drop 3 to 5 percent so they can buy lower going into the seasonally strong end of the year. However, so far that's been wrong. There has been no drop in the market.

Maybe because the market senses that the cautious earnings guidance everyone is expecting will lead to an extention of support from the Federal Reserve, but even given that, the strength is impressive. One final note: Volume at the NYSE has been a bit above average for the last couple of days. Heavier volume as the market hits a new high? Hmmm. That's a confirmation.

At least the commentary is moving more toward fundamentals:

1) China GDP growth of 7.8 percent has lifted all of Asia, including emerging markets, with all the European markets up as well.

2) The 10-year yield has collapsed, going from 2.75 percent Wednesday to about 2.55 percent this morning.

3) The dollar is dropping again today, not far from a two-year low against the euro.

Elsewhere

1) Voxeljet AG (VJET), a German provider of high-speed, large-format 3-D printers, priced 6.5 million shares at $13, the low end of $13 to $15.

2) We've gotten mixed guidance from big international industrials. On Friday, someone finally raises guidance: Honeywell raised the low end of its 2013 earnings guidance but lowers 2013 revenues; Ingersoll Rand also raised the low ends of its 2013 earnings and revenue guidance. Parker Hannifin raised its 2014 earnings per share (EPS) guidance. Textron lowered its full-year guidance.

By CNBC's Bob Pisani

  • A CNBC reporter since 1990, Bob Pisani covers Wall Street from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

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