Will bull market last as long as ARod's contract?
Recapping the day's news and newsmakers through the lens of CNBC.
"Correction" is a term that gets used increasingly loosely in stock market talk—for every two percent or three percent selloff. The truth is the stock market hasn't had a real correction—a drop between 10 percent and 20 percent—in more than two years. That's 516 trading days, with no shortage of reasons for a selloff, either. In the past 25 years, the market has seen two such 'irrepressible' bulls, and both lasted considerably longer than the current run, and the end of the last major run was notable for its destruction.
"The current streak would have to extend all the way out to October 1st, 2018 to match [the 1990-97 record]. By then we'd be approaching the first mid-term elections of our next president and a full year past the end of Alex Rodriguez's seemingly never-ending 10-year Yankees contract!"—Bespoke Investment Group co-founder Paul Hickey, in a note to clients
If this is jobs number pre-shutdown ...
A weak jobs report makes it likely the Fed will cling to its low-interest policy into next year. Today's report, delayed from Friday by the government shutdown, showed 148,000 nonfarm jobs created in September, down from 193,000 in August, and well below the 180,000 forecast. Especially worrisome were the weak private sector figures. Effects of the government shutdown, which likely weakened the economy further, were not reflected in the September numbers. Stocks edged up on the news, while Treasury prices indicated investors expect low rates for some time.
"It feels like the economy weakened this summer, and given the shutdown and the brinkmanship, it will weaken further going into next year. ... Odds are high that job growth will continue to soften over the next few months."—Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.
"What matters is that job creation has slowed each quarter this year."—Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG
All in a day's work
The economy may be in the doldrums but the high-flying stock market has done wonders for CEO pay. Total "realized" pay rose 8.5 percent in 2012 as CEOs exercised stock options acquired a few years earlier when strike prices were low. At big firms gains were closer to 20 percent. And they could be even bigger for 2013 and beyond, given the S&P 500's 20 percent-plus climb this year. The downside: this could prod regulators to impose new Dodd-Frank rules to reign in CEO pay.
"The numbers have gone completely over the top. Boards of directors risk political backlash when they can contribute to these levels of inequity."—Eleanor Bloxham of The Value Alliance
The Jet Set economic indicator
You'd think healthy stock gains and an eagerness to compensate executives handsomely would boost spending on other perks. But the corporate-jet industry is still in its multi-year slump. There's some hope sales might top last year's unenviable level, but no one expects a quick return to the highs of the past decade. Recently, demand has gone up for bigger jets with longer ranges, reflecting the increased business with Asia. That demand has encouraged the industry to think sales will rise.
"When you talk with the executives of the jet makers, all of them say there's a little bit of concern about the uncertainty over the economy."—CNBC's Phil LeBeau
Home on the insurance range
A wildfire destroys your home. Should you file a homeowner's insurance claim? Of course! But what if a Little Leaguer hits a baseball through your window? In that case, think hard, as filing even a single claim can raise your insurance premium. Nationally, rate hikes following claims average $150, or 9 percent of the premium, according to a study by Insurance Quotes, but the penalties range all over the place. In Minnesota and Connecticut, a single claim boosts premiums by 21 percent. In Texas, where regulation bars such hikes, the increase is zero.
"Don't make claims on small losses. If it will only cost you several hundred dollars out of pocket, it's probably better to pay for the repair yourself instead of filing a formal claim with your insurance company."—Laura Adams, senior insurance analyst at Insurancequotes.com
—By Jeff Brown, Special to CNBC.com