Editor's note: Combining his passions for the markets, humor and food, "What's cookin' with Kenny Polcari" is a blog published twice weekly on CNBC.com. With more than 30 years of experience on Wall Street, Polcari provides insight and analysis on the markets, as well as a recipe du jour. Buon appetito!
The S&P is up 5.3 percent in October—a substantial move, yes—complementing the already strong move during the year. I, along with many others, do not expect that we will see any change in policy or plans on Wednesday when we get the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes. The two-day meeting begins today and ends with the "presentation of facts" tomorrow. All eyes will focus on potential revisions in their monetary policy statement. What words did they change? Does it change the meaning of the current policy? Traders will listen intently to see if they can read "between the lines." If September is any indicator, we are likely to see them stay away from any talk of "tapering" anytime soon. After what happened when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested a possible dialing back of the Fed's easy money policy during the May meeting, I doubt he wants to reignite that flame right now. Remember the immediate chaos? The markets didn't respond well at all.
(Read more: QE expected to continue in 2014: CNBC survey)
I suspect that Bernanke will focus on the government shutdown and how the picture has changed as a result. Watch to see if he indicates that "it may take months before our economy can recover from these debt ceiling arguments/shutdown."
If so, then this is the signal that talk of tapering is off the table until well into 2014. Recall there are four deadlines ahead: December 17 is when a small group of legislators will try to craft a broader budget deal. This is NOT the same group that failed during last year's "supercommittee" agenda. January 15 and February 7 are the other key dates before we run out of money again. In the middle of all that, the Fed will be changing hands so a change in policy is very unlikely then.
The recent government shutdown has given the Fed the cover to keep printing money. In fact, continued weak/mixed economic data will only solidify the Fed's stance.
(Read more: Data will be the key as Fed meeting starts)
I continue to suspect that we remain entrenched in a tight trading pattern, with S&P 1,760 representing the high and 1,730 being support, as the market consolidates and allows the fundamentals to catch up to prices. In the end, we may see one last push higher as the bears capitulate into year end and become buyers. It is here that the bulls will take advantage and sell stock and this will be the turning point.
And now from the kitchen of Kenny Polcari, here's his recipe of the day!
Parmigiana crostini with cannelloni bean and kale bruschetta
As we approach the Thanksgiving holiday season, I thought it might be interesting to throw out some holiday appetizer recipes. It gives you something to consider as you are preparing your table.
Appetizers make perfect sense—but don't overdo it! Just enough to tease your guests before the big reveal. This dish is easy to make and delicious to eat.
- Cannelloni beans
- Chicken broth
- French baguette
- Olive oil
- Finely grated parmigiana cheese
To make the crostini, pre-heat the oven to 400 degrees (bake, not broil). Now, slice the baguette at a diagonal into like 1/2 in thickness. Arrange on a cookie sheet and brush with melted butter/olive oil mix. Sprinkle lightly with finely grated parmigiana cheese, but just a hint. Bake in the oven until browned, flip over and continue baking to brown the other side, but do not brush with butter & oil. Remove and set aside.
For the bean bruschetta, cut the ribs out of the kale leaves and then rough chop the leaves. In a large sauté pan, add some olive oil and the thinly sliced garlic. Sauté for 3 or 4 minutes. Now, add kale and cook for 2 or 3 minutes. Reduce heat to low and now add chicken broth, maybe like 1/4 to 1/2 cup. You do NOT want to make it soupy. Cover and cook for about 5 minutes more. Now add the beans (which you have drained and rinsed in a strainer), mix with the kale and let cook for another 5 minutes or so. Gently smash some of the beans to help hold it together and season with salt and pepper. Remove and let cool for 10 minutes.
Now spoon the kale-bean bruschetta onto the parmigiana crostini and arrange on a platter and serve immediately.
This is a nice change from the usual tomato bruschetta that many people make. It is colorful and presents beautifully.
—By Kenny Polcari, director of NYSE floor operations, O'Neil Securities and CNBC contributor, often appearing on "Power Lunch." The author is not compensated by CNBC for this or any other written materials found on CNBC.com. Follow Kenny on Twitter @kennypolcari and visit him at kennypolcari.com.
Disclosure: The market commentary is the opinion of the author and is based on decades of industry and market experience; however no guarantee is made or implied with respect to these opinions. This commentary is not nor is it intended to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment. The comments noted herein should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial product, or an official statement or endorsement of O'Neil Securities or its affiliates.