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Why crude oil deserves to drop to $90: Pro

Thursday, 31 Oct 2013 | 9:22 AM ET
A Lufkin Industries Inc. Mark II Unitorque electric pumping unit removes crude oil from a Fidelity Exploration & Production Co. well outside South Heart, North Dakota.
Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images
A Lufkin Industries Inc. Mark II Unitorque electric pumping unit removes crude oil from a Fidelity Exploration & Production Co. well outside South Heart, North Dakota.

Crude oil may have dropped sharply in recent days. But with the latest build in supplies, and weak job growth numbers from ADP, one wonders why crude oil isn't trading at $90 rather than $96.

The fundamental side of the equation looks very weak. Crude oil supplies have increased by over 28 million barrels in the last six weeks, and with ADP reporting that only 130,000 private sector jobs were created in October, demand should remain quite low. The geopolitical front is quiet, and Europe's economy is struggling.

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So why isn't crude trading at $90? The main reason, I believe, is quantitative easing, and the effect it is having on the dollar. Of course, a weaker dollar means higher crude prices. And while the Dollar Index has moved higher in recent days, it is still trading right at the 80 handle, and looks like it could move much lower.

Yet while the weak dollar should provide a bit of support to crude, I believe that simple supply and demand dynamics will prevail, and that's why I will look to short this market once again.

(Read more: US oil earnings preview: Exxon, Conoco and Chevron)

Current resistance is between $97.20 and $97.50, and then up at $98.40, On the downside, you will find support at $94.80 to $95.20, and under that there is not much more until $93.

Anthony Grisanti is the founder and president of GRZ Energy. Follow him on Twitter: @AnthonyGriz

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