Go ahead and pop that cork—fears of a global wine shortage are overblown.
Industry analysts say better-than-expected production in some EU countries like Spain and Italy will help make up for a shortfall in France, and New World wine producing countries like Chile and the United States are cranking out a bumper crop.
Morgan Stanley research this past week alarmed oenophiles with the warning that 2012 produced "the deepest shortfall in over 40 years of records," according to the firm's Tom Kierath.
"As consumption turns to the 2012 vintage, we expect the current production shortfall to culminate in a significant increase in export demand, and higher prices for exports globally," he wrote.
But consumers shouldn't cry in their wine just yet. Stephen Rannekleiv, a wine analyst at Rabobank International, an agricultural lender, said this decrease marked a return to a more typical level of production and wouldn't lead to bottles vanishing from store shelves.
"We didn't think of it as a shortage. We thought of it as moving closer to balance," he said. "We're coming out of close to a decade of a supply glut."
(Read more: Is China causing a global wine shortage?)
A new report from an industry trade group also offers hope for wine drinkers. "The vitivinicultural world has returned to 2006 production levels this year despite the persistent decline … of the global vineyard surface area," said a statement this past week by the Paris-based International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV).
Part of the apparent contradiction can be chalked up to the complexity of trying to forecast how weather and other factors will affect grape harvests around the world in any given year.
"There's a lot of moving parts when you're trying to measure what's happening both with production and consumption, and there's not great visibility on what's happening in real time," Rannekleiv said.