CCTV Script 4/11/13
— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on November 4, Monday.
Welcome to the CNBC Business Daily.
Analysts are awaiting the mother of all economic data due out this Friday. The October reading for U.S. nonfarm payrolls is deemed especially important as it should include the economic impact of the Washington shutdown during the 1st half of the month. So far, a Reuters poll expects just 130-thousand jobs to be created in October, with the jobless rate creeping up to 7-point-3 percent.
So what impact will this have on US markets? Here's what CNBC guests had to say:
[Soundbyte on tape by Simon Grose-Hodge, Head of Investment Advisory, South Asia, LGT Bank] The data coming through this week from the US is likely to show a bit of a slowdown in terms of Q3 GDP and we also know we're going to get a relatively soft number out of payrolls because of the disruption out of the Government Shutdown. So all of this tends to mean to us that 110421 Fed tapering is going to be delayed to 2014, probably March. I don't think they're going to be withdrawing any stimulus in that sort of environment. There's certainly no need for them to rush, and in that sort of scenario, that's very good for the equity markets.
[Soundbyte on tape by David Poh, Regional Head of Asset Allocation, Societe Generale Private Banking] What happens with the US dollar is dependent on the macroeconomic data that comes out. The corporate financials are very strong with high cash levels and share buybacks. Earnings have been very positive - 67% of earnings have beat expectations. On the corporate side, the US is very positive, but on the macro side the US is still a bit mixed. On the USD, the Fed is not going to do much until year end.
[Soundbyte on tape by Mitul Kotecha, Head of Global FX Strategy, Credit Agricole] The market has been more restrained on the dollar in recent weeks. The bounce back has been pretty good in the dollar and there's more to go. I don't think that's finished yet, but after the big move that we saw last week, I would suggest a little bit of caution. We've got the jobs numbers in the US at the end of this week, which are probably going to be weak. We also have he ECB meeting, a number of other central banks and data releases, so I would still be constructive on the dollar, but perhaps be a little more cautious going into the next few days.