Yet this report was so strong that, even accounting for gyrations around the shutdown, you have to conclude that the job market is performing stronger than expected.
The shutdown was from the 1st to the 16th. There were statistical changes made to account for the shutdown. The establishment survey, which is what the nonfarm payrolls are based on, was the week of the 12th. Anybody who received at least one day of pay during that cycle was considered employed.
Regardless: the number was so impressive that you've got to acknowledge that--statistical gyrations or not---the report indicates growth. Even if you haircut the current private payroll growth of 212,000 to 180,000, that's still pretty strong.
However, is it strong enough for the Federal Reserve to taper in December? Probably not, but the bond market thinks it is, and we know the bond market can run ahead of reality. They did it last time, when they jacked 10-year yields to 2.90 in early September, when everyone was convinced they were going to taper in September.
Is there any more data that would convince the Fed to taper? You only have one more jobs report for December before the Fed meeting December 17th-18th. Even if that is strong--above 200,000--the rolling 3-month average is still below 200,000. It's unlikely there is enough data points for them to move by then.
But if the December number is strong, the bond market will continue to try to taper for the Fed.