CCTV Script 11/11/2013
— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on November 11, Monday.
Welcome to the CNBC Business Daily.
It's a light data week over in the U.S.
Markets will instead be paying close attention to comments from Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen. Yellen will on Thursday face a US Senate Banking Committee over her nomination to replace Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Meantime on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart is expected to give a speech on the economy.
Friday's upbeat jobs data has brought forward tapering expectations. Analysts polled by Reuters now expect the Fed to scale back stimulus before March. A similar poll conducted two-weeks earlier showed that dealers didn't expect a tapering move before March. And on the data front. We will get October industrial output, as well as weekly jobless claims numbers. We will also get more clues on the upcoming holiday shopping season with several retailers reporting earnings including Macy's, Kohl's and Wal-Mart.
So what should investors look out for this week in light of the better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data? Here's some views from our guests:
[Soundbyte on tape by Mitul Kotecha, Head of Global FX Strategy, Credit Agricole CIB] I think what's happening here is the market is reacting normally. We've had good numbers in the US, which means that the US is doing reasonably well in its recovery, and what were seeing here is that the effect of the government shutdown has been limited so far. The evidence is not there of any strong reaction. And that's good news and the equity markets in the US are doing well. Of course there's caution in Asia because that implies earlier tapering, and potentially tapering in December or January.
[Soundbyte on tape by Steve Goldman, MD, Kapstream Capital] Now we get a 200,000 number, which is quite a bit stronger than what we've seen recently. Markets have now raised their probabilities for tapering coming quickly, off one fairly volatile number. I think we're going to need to see at least two more pretty strong payroll numbers for the Fed to actually begin that tapering. In my view, it's very unlikely that that's going to happen by year's end. My view also is that it's probably in Q2 rather than Q1 of 2014.
[Soundbyte on tape by Tony Nash, Vice President, IHS] We're a little bit worried about Q4 in the US, so Q3 was better than expected but the inventory...we're a little bit worried that it could be taking away from Q4. So, not hugely worried. The overall story in the US is a good one. and we think that it is on the right track, on the right path.
Li Sixuan from CNBC's Singapore headquarters.