Gartman expects quiet rise in long Treasury yields
The yield on the 10-year Treasury could increase a half percent by the end of next year, investor Dennis Gartman said Wednesday on CNBC. But he argued that a move like that won't hurt the economy.
The publisher of The Gartman Letter told "Squawk Box" that he sees a "massive top" in the bond market, and he's shorting the long end of the yield curve.
Bond yields were slightly lower early Wednesday, after rising Tuesday on speculation that the Federal Reserve could begin to scale back its $85 billion monthly bond purchases sooner than expected—may be as early as December—because of last Friday's strong October jobs report. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 2.79 percent Tuesday for the first time in nearly two months.
"Rates at the long end of the curve are probably quietly going to go higher. They're not going to go higher in a short period of time," Gartman said. "Over the course of the next six months, 12 months, we'll take the yield on the 10 year from 2.76 percent above 3 percent with no difficulty. We may get to 3.25 percent before the end of next year. But I don't see that really being detrimental to the economy."
(Read more: Dennis Gartman sees 'massive top' in bond market)
Gartman said also there's no reason to be long gold in dollar terms.
On the timing of Fed tapering, he predicted: "It's going to be quite some period of time before we have a reduction in the amount of accommodation by the Fed. I think it'll be at least through the middle of next year, if not the end of next year before we see any reduction in accommodation."
Two other market watchers who appeared on "Squawk Box" Wednesday agreed that the start of Fed tapering probably won't happen until next year.
"People who are expecting a taper in December are going to be disappointed. If you are the Fed, you do not mess around with the equity market around Christmas," said UBS economist Drew Matus.
Sarat Sethi, portfolio manager at Douglas C. Lane & Associates, agreed, "First quarter is when you are going to see some kind of a taper."
(Related video: Matus and Sethi on Fed taper and the markets)
Meanwhile, Gartman said "the economy is doing reasonably well" from what he sees during his travels around the country, adding that "we're [in] a very slow, very laborious, very boring economic strengthening period."
"That's what's sponsoring stronger yields, higher yields, at the back end of the curve," he explained.