Based on experts' early store checks and online traffic, the following retailers have been identified by analysts as early winners and losers of the Thanksgiving and Black Friday megaweekend, which the National Retail Federation predicts will attract some 140 million shoppers.
"By all appearances and according to CEOs I've spoken with across the retail spectrum, it looks like the early opening of stores on Thanksgiving and the traditional start of holiday shopping on Black Friday is breaking new records, including what companies are seeing through their digital channels," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.
Macy's—The mid-tier department store announced on Friday that 15,000 people waited outside its Herald Square flagship for the store's 8 p.m. Thursday opening.
"The key is they're going in and they're getting the marketshare, and they're not letting it walk out the door," said SW Retail Advisors' Stacey Widlitz.
Best Buy—Widlitz said she was one of 300 people waiting in line to enter the specialty electronics store for its 6 p.m. Thursday opening, and said the deals are not only great, but so is the customer service.
"The salespeople actually know what they're talking about," she said.
(Read more: Game on for a retooled Best Buy)
Foot Locker—Belus Capital Advisors' Brian Sozzi said traffic looked strong at the sporting goods store, thanks to Nike's Jordan line.
Abercrombie & Fitch—Citi analyst Oliver Chen noted strong traffic and attractive product at the teen retailer, which has struggled to strike a note with its clientele over the past few years. In a research note, he reported an average 45-minute wait at the register in stores in three Northeast areas.
Hollister—Chen's note said the merchandise at Abercrombie's lower-priced counterpart also looked on-trend, with moderate traffic and a 10- to 15-minute wait at the register.
Kohl's—Stifel Nicolaus analyst Richard Jaffe said stores were very busy and customers waited for doorbusters.
Aéropostale—Pamela Quintiliano, director, specialty retail at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, said that while teen retailers Abercrombie and Hollister were some of the most crowded stores she checked in the mall, Aéropostale didn't open until midnight and, as a result, it didn't get the traffic.
J.C. Penney—Sozzi noted that while the retailer, which had been heavily discounting ahead of Black Friday, had good traffic, shoppers were not carrying bags, indicating many were leaving empty-handed. The struggling home department remained quiet, he said.
(Read more: J.C. Penney's $1.97 pants could spoil Christmas)
Chico's—Jaffe's team observed weak traffic at the store, noting that Black Friday shoppers tend to be women shopping for others, rather than for themselves.
TJX/Ross Stores—The stores saw light traffic, due to their everyday low-price policy, Jaffe said. He noted, however, that "their time to capture holiday sales will come."
Wal-Mart—The world's largest retailer announced on Friday that it logged more than 10 million transactions between 6 p.m. and 10 p.m. on Thanksgiving, when its in-store Black Friday sales kicked off. Online, its one-hour guarantee items saw so much traffic that it needed to create a virtual waiting room for shoppers.
But the retailer's public image took a big hit, as headlines populated the Web about planned nationwide protests over its wages. In Chicago 10 people, including two employees, were arrested outside of a Walmart store while protesting.
—By CNBC's Krystina Gustafson. Follow her on Twitter
.CNBC's Phil LeBeau contributed to this report.