"I don't think the deals are going to affect the companies' performance," said Telsey. The tail-end of the holiday shopping season, shorter by six days this year, is the most telling part, when 40 percent of sales are made. She also said that if sales surprise, it should be to the upside.
Holiday shopping season can be a volatile time for retail stocks, particularly if investors worry that the season is not particularly strong, she said. Then the stocks tend to outperform the market in the first quarter.
"Macy's, TJX and Michael Kors will be some of the winners," Telsey said.
What to watch
Earnings: Ascena Retail, Thor Industries, Krispy Kreme
8:30 a.m. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke opening remarks at National College Fed Challenge
8:58 a.m. Manufacturing PMI
10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing
10:00 a.m. Construction spending
Earnings: Bob Evans, United Natural Foods, Bank of Montreal
November auto sales
Earnings: Express, Brown-Forman, Mattress Firm, Guess, Aéropostale, Synopsys
8:15 a.m. ADP Employment
8:30 a.m. International Trade
10:00 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing
2:00 p.m. Beige Book
Earnings: Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion, Dollar General Kroger, Ulta Salon, Cooper Cos., Zumiez, Toro, Esterline
November chain stores sales
7:30 a.m. Challenger Gray layoffs
8:30 a.m. Initial claims
8:30 a.m. Q3 GDP (2nd look)
8:30 a.m. Corporate profits
10:00 a.m. Factory orders
Earnings: American Eagle Outfitters, Big Lots, Bank of Nova Scotia
8:30 a.m. Employment report
830 a.m. Personal income
9:55 a.m. Consumer sentiment
10:15 a.m. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser on economy
3:00 p.m. Consumer credit
3:00 p.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans on economy
—By CNBC's Patti Domm. Follow here on Twitter @pattidomm.