Most analysts expect the Fed to start tapering its $85 billion monthly bond-buying program in the first quarter, with only 2 percent expecting a move at next week's meeting.
I'm not a contrarian by nature, but I do like the risk-reward of betting that it does taper next week, especially with a budget deal being struck. A large part of why the Fed chose not to taper in September was the high probability of a government shutdown and debt ceiling debate, but a repeat of that next year no longer looks likely.
Between that and the strong economic numbers we've been seeing, a December taper is certainly not out of the question.
(Read more: As funds get massively short, gold could spike)