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Gávea's equity fund has lost money recently on long positions in oil and gas, financials and industrials, according to investor materials. Winners in November include long positions in education and short bets in materials.
Souza acknowledges how bearish most analysts and investors are about the Brazilian economy but said that such pessimism has largely been priced in.
"We believe that after nearly three years of margin contraction and consistent earnings downgrades, we may well be at an inflection point," Souza wrote. "And this could be positive for equity markets overall despite the negative macro environment."
Gávea is also bullish on China and the United States.
"We believe that many of China's difficulties are already priced in, especially in the equity market, creating an asymmetry that we are now attempting to exploit," firm executives Edward Amadeo, Arminio Fraga and Gabriel Srour wrote in a separate letter to investors in Gávea's macro fund.
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The firm also correctly anticipated the U.S. Federal Reserve's reduction of its monetary stimulus program Wednesday.
"We believe that the fiscal burden on growth in 2014 should be smaller than that of 2013," they wrote, "and that the variance of scenarios envisioned by the market for the country's GDP growth in 2014 has decreased, converging to 2.5 percent to 3.0 percent."
As a result, Gávea has long positions in Chinese stocks via Hong Kong and Shanghai equity indexes and a long stake in the U.S. dollar against currencies in developed economies such as in Canada, Japan and Europe, according to the letter.
The $1.52 billion Gávea Fund, which bets globally on stocks, currencies, interest rates and other asset classes, is up 1.92 percent this year through November. The Absolute Return Macro Index—which tracks hedge funds that run a similar strategy—is up just 1.0 percent over the same period.
Gávea chief executive officer Amaury Bier declined to comment.
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