China will not overtake US economy until 2028: CEBR
London-based economic consultancy, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), says China won't eclipse the U.S. economy until 2028, much later than some analysts have suggested.
According to the CEBR's World Economic League Table, China's rise to the world's number one economy will be much slower than previously thought, due to both strength in the U.S. economy and the relative slowdown in China's domestic economy, CEBR analysts said.
"China's spectacular economic development has continued and although the increasing maturity of its economy and relatively unfavorable demographics mean that growth will inevitably slow, we still expect China to overtake the U.S. to become the world's largest economy in 2028 for the first time since 1890...This is later than some analysts have suggested," the CEBR analysts added.
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According to CEBR, China's gross domestic product will grow to $33,513 billion in 2028, up from $8,939 billion in 2013.
India, meanwhile, is set to become the world's number three economy by 2028, overtaking Japan much sooner than the CEBR had previously expected.
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CEBR said Japan's position in the league table had been impacted by its weakening currency, which has declined roughly 20 percent against the dollar this year, and is likely to bring Japan's position down in gross domestic product terms value.
"In addition [to the weak yen] Japan's demographics are uniquely unfavorable and the combination leads to Japan losing its position as the world's third largest economy to India in 2028," added the CEBR analysts.
Another high flying economy will be the U.K. which CEBR expects to overtake France and Germany to become the largest European economy by 2030.
"Positive demographics with continuing immigration, rather less exposure to the problems of the euro zone than other European economies combined with relatively low taxes by European standards to encourage faster growth than in most Western economies," read the CEBR report.
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However, the CEBR acknowledged that the British economy would need to overcome some key issues to realize its full potential.
"Issues for the U.K. include the need further to reorient its exports to the faster growing markets, an unresolved relationship with the rest of the European Union and the possibility of breakup – highlighted by the referendum on Scottish independence in September 2014."
Meanwhile, Brazil, which overtook the U.K. in 2011 to become the world's sixth largest economy, but has since fallen back to seventh place in the table in 2013 amid a weak currency and political tension, is expected to surge again over the next decade, overtaking both the U.K. and Germany by 2023.
CEBR attributed this to Brazil's strong agricultural trade boosted by the Doha round agreement and by genetically modified foods.
European economies, by contrast, will see a decline in their positions, due to slow growth, a weakening currency and adverse demographics. The CEBR report found that if the euro bloc breaks up, this would benefit Germany and disadvantage the other economies.
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However, if the bloc remains intact, Germany will drop from the fourth largest economy in 2013 to the sixth largest both in 2023 and 2028. For France the drop is even more precipitous – from fifth in 2013, to eighth in 2018, to 10th in 2023, and 13th in 2028.
The CEBR said they had updated their report this year to take account of the likely surplus of energy and falling oil and gas prices in the 2020s, weaker commodity prices that had previously been expected and the depreciation of some emerging market currencies this year.
As a result, Russia's economic outlook now appears much less favorable than previously believed. Although Russia will move up to sixth place in 2018 from eighth in 2013, it will fall back to eighth by 2023.
— By CNBC's Katie Holliday: Follow her on Twitter @hollidaykatie