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Delving into advance, Cramer uncovers telling clue

(Click for video linked to a searchable transcript of this Mad Money segment)

U.S. stocks climbed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 closing in the green after a three-session decline.

However, dig down into the advance and Jim Cramer says you'll find a piece of information that no investor should miss.

For the first time in over a month, Cramer says classic growth stocks such as Celgene, Johnson & Johnson and Pepsico came together as a cohesive group and drove the advance. "Before today, they had been stalled or dripping lower."

Paul Taylor | Stone | Getty Images

Instead, until Tuesday, industrials, transports and the banks had all been leading the advance. Cramer found the leadership concerning because industrials, transports and banks are all sectors that rally as interest rates rise. In fact, they rally when interest rates sharply.

"Why is this so important right now? Because on Friday we get an employment number that could be very robust," Cramer explained. "Many worry a strong jobs number could trigger another spike in interest rates – as high as 3.5% - as investors sell off bonds and the Fed cuts back on its own bond buying program at the same time."

That kind of rate shock has sent shivers down the market's spine. Last year it triggered significant selling. "That's the nightmare scenario that so many bears have been predicting," Cramer noted.

However, with the advance of classic growth stocks, Cramer believes the worst case scenario may be off the table. Companies like Pepsico, Celgene and Johnson & Johnson don't thrive when rates shoot higher, they do well in a more interest rate benign environment.

That's not to say Cramer doesn't expect rates to climb, he does. It's just that he thinks they may not spike. It's the spike that's the problem. "I'm not against higher rates per se. But I'm not for a lightning advance in interest rates," Cramer emphasized.


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"And to me Tuesday's rally says temper your worries. The leadership switch to classic growth stocks shows that while rates can certainly go up in 2014, they probably won't go up in the straight line like the industrials, transports and bank stocks had been signaling."

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Symbol
Price
 
Change
%Change
CELG
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JNJ
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PEP
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SPDR IND SEL
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IYT
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SPDR FIN SEL
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