Eugen Weinberg, global head of commodities research at Commerzbank, said Brent crude's "very tight range" between $100 and $120 a barrel over the past three years reflects how supply-led price spikes have been contained by a constructive supply environment.
"The basic factor keeping oil prices from rising over the coming months, maybe years, is probably what we've been witnessing in the shale boom in the U.S.," Weinberg told CNBC's 'Squawk Box' on Friday.
Annual U.S. production capacity additions of 1 million barrels a day will likely continue over the coming years, Weinberg said, "definitely taking the heat from the market."
'Crescent of Chaos'
(Read more: Fight in Iraq has oil traders holding their breath)
But political risk strategists warn global risks to supply will continue to unnerve markets -- regardless of the supply boom underway in the US.
"Events in Iraq and Libya underline the fact that non-negligible threats to oil output are to be found more widely in the region," said Alastair Newton, Nomura's Senior Political Analyst said in a Jan.15 report.
Deepening tensions between Sunni and Shia Muslims in an area of the Middle East Newton calls the "crescent of chaos" – focused primarily around Syria, Iraq and Iran -- means oil price risks from this first quarter "and beyond may be skewed to the upside."